Real Time Forecast

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Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 14:57:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 14:49:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 14:41:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 16:10:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:05. hrs

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Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 12:24:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 13:07:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 16:28:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 16:58:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 14:07:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 16:52:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 15:57:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 13:42:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 20:07:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs

 

Active Break Selection Criteria

Rajeevan et al. [2010] defined the active and break spells of ISMR during the peak monsoon months of July and August by using the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over monsoon core zone of India (MZI) calculated from the high resolution daily gridded rainfall data over India. The break (active) spell has been identified when the normalized rainfall anomaly over the MZI which is roughly from 18°N to 28°N and 65°E to 88°E [Rajeevan et al. 2010], is less (greater) than –1.0 (+1.0), consecutively for three days or more. This criterion holds good for daily data.

For pentad data we have defined active/break spells using long term pentad mean and standard deviation of rainfall. A criterion of ±40% has been used to identify the active and break spells of Indian summer monsoon for pentad data during JJAS. Figure shows the mean, ±1SD line as well as ±40% of the mean. It is found that ±40% line is within the ±1SD line. So we have suggested that when rainfall is less than -40% of the long term pentad mean, the spell has been defined as break; greater than 40%, the spell is active and otherwise normal.