Real Time Forecast

Download Real Time Forecast PPT

Verification

Download Verification PPT

Latest Verification

File NameDate & Time
Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 14:57:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 14:49:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 14:41:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 16:10:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:05. hrs

Archive

View Details

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

File NameDate & Time

Archieval of Forecast Verification

File NameDate & Time
Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 12:24:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 13:07:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 16:28:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 16:58:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 14:07:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 16:52:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 15:57:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 13:42:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 20:07:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs

 

ERPAS - 2011

ONSET FORECAST

Figure shows the time series of ROK and CEF starting from 17th May 2011. It is evident from the figure that the forecasted date of MOK was 03rd June 2011. Our onset forecast suffered an error of 5 days, as the actual onset date declared by IMD was 29th May 2011.

FORECAST SKILL OVER HOMOGENEOUS REGIONS

To assess the forecast skill over the selected regions, correlation coefficients (CC) between the predicted and observed rainfall anomaly are listed in Table for the years 2011 over MZI for CFST126, GFSbc and CFST382. It is observed that CFST126 is performing better at pentad 4 lead (CC values are 0.43 and 0.38 respectively) in 2011.

The ERP skill of active-break spells over the homogeneous regions are shown in

Figure (a),
Figure (b),
Figure (c),
Figure (d),
Figure (e).

Figure shows the categorical probabilistic prediction skills in pentad lead 3 and 4 for CFST126, GFSbc and CFST382.

MISO FORECASTING

Figure show the evolution of MISO from four different initial conditions in 2011. The start dates of forecast are randomly selected to capture active conditions starting around pentad 25–29th August, 2011. The forecast is shown for continuous 25 days. It is clear that, though CFST126, CFST382 and GFSbc show identical behaviour in capturing the phase evolution, the amplitude differs at times with observation. CFS-derived MISO amplitudes show larger over-estimation than GFSbc in general 5–7 days after the start date of forecast.

FORECAST OF TRANSITION TO ACTIVE PHASE

Figure shows the prediction verification for two active spells (25–29th August, 2011) in CFST126, CFST382 and GFSbc and in all the four pentad lead. These pentads represent a transition to the strong active conditions. Figure shows that CFST126 run is able to capture the transition to active spells over the west coast and northwest India four pentad in advance, while GFSbc shows mostly negative to no rainfall anomaly over this region 3–4 pentads in advance. Moreover, the performance of CFST382 in predicting this transition is comparable to that of CFST126.