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Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 14:57:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 14:49:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 14:41:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 16:10:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:05. hrs

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Archieval of Forecast Verification

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Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 12:24:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 13:07:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 16:28:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 16:58:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 14:07:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 16:52:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 15:57:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 13:42:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 20:07:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs

 

ERPAS - 2012

ONSET FORECAST

The forecast of MOK for year 2012 is shown in Figure. The forecasted MOK (05th June) exactly matches with that of IMD. However, there is a standard deviation of 3 days among different ensemble members.

FORECAST SKILL OVER HOMOGENEOUS REGIONS

To assess the forecast skill over the selected regions, correlation coefficients (CC) between the predicted and observed rainfall anomaly are listed in Table for the year 2012 over MZI for CFST126, GFSbc and CFST382. It is observed that CFST126 is performing better at pentad 4 lead (CC values are 0.43 and 0.38 respectively) in 2012.
The ERP skill of active-break spells over the homogeneous regions are shown in

Figure (a),
Figure (b),
Figure (c),
Figure (d),
Figure (e).

Figure shows the categorical probabilistic prediction skills in pentad lead 3 and 4 for CFST126, GFSbc and CFST382.

MISO FORECASTING

Figure show the evolution of MISO from four different initial conditions in 2012. The start dates of forecast are randomly selected to capture active conditions starting around pentad 4-8th September, 2012. The forecast is shown for continuous 25 days. It is clear that, though CFST126, CFST382 and GFSbc show identical behaviour in capturing the phase evolution, the amplitude differs at times with observation. CFS-derived MISO amplitudes show larger over-estimation than GFSbc in general 5–7 days after the start date of forecast.

FORECAST OF TRANSITION TO ACTIVE PHASE

Figure shows the prediction verification for two active spells (4–8th September, 2012) in CFST126, CFST382 and GFSbc and in all the four pentad lead. These pentads represent a transition to the strong active conditions. In 2012 (Figure), the 4–8th September active spell over south-central India and adjoining BoB is well-captured four pentads in advance in CFS126 run compared to GFSbc. Again, CFST382 run shows similar performance to that of CFST126. Thus, the transitions to active spells are predicted well in advance both in CFST126 and T382 run with better skill in terms of spatial patterns of observed distribution of.