Real Time Forecast

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Verification

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Latest Verification

File NameDate & Time
Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 14:57:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 14:49:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 14:41:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 16:10:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:05. hrs

Archive

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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

File NameDate & Time

Archieval of Forecast Verification

File NameDate & Time
Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 12:24:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 13:07:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 16:28:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 16:58:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 14:07:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 16:52:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 15:57:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 13:42:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 20:07:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs

 

Experimental Setup

We have conducted three sets of experiments for the real-time prediction during 2011 and 2012 and the same sets of experiments were also conducted in the hindcast mode from 2001 to 2010.

The first set of experiment is with CFSv2 with its atmospheric component (GFSv2) at T126 horizontal resolution in coupled mode. Model integrations were started from 16 May and continued up to 28 September at every 5 day interval (16 May, 21 May, 26 May, ..., 23 Sep, 28 Sep). An ensemble of 11 members integration was performed for each start date and for the next 25 days period. This experiment is termed as CFST126.

In the second set of experiment we have identified the daily SST bias in the coupled model forecast in the control run of set one and corrected the bias with respect to the observed daily SST data (OISST). Bias correction is done by removing the daily mean bias (i.e. model daily climatology ΜΆ observed daily climatology) from the daily forecasted SST. This corrected daily SST is provided as the boundary forcing and GFSv2 at T126 horizontal resolution was run forced with this SST for the same period for next 25 days and same initial conditions in the ensemble mode as in set one. This experiment is termed as GFSbc.

In addition, we have conducted one more set of experiment to study the impact of resolution on the extended range forecasts over Indian monsoon region. By keeping all physics and ocean components same, resolution of atmospheric component of CFS (ie:GFS) has been increased to T382 (~30 km).