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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2017

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170607.ppt June 08 2017 17:40:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170531.ppt June 01 2017 17:43:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170524.ppt May 25 2017 13:15:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170517.ppt May 19 2017 14:52:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170510.ppt May 15 2017 19:05:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170503.ppt May 08 2017 17:49:38. hrs

Archieval of Forecast Verification

2013

File NameDate & Time
FV_2013_Animation_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 17:03:07. hrs
FV_2013_AAVE.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_MISO.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_20130908.ppt September 09 2013 14:19:40. hrs
FV_20130903.ppt September 04 2013 19:09:13. hrs
FV_2013_July.ppt September 04 2013 18:42:19. hrs
FV_2013_June.ppt September 04 2013 18:39:20. hrs
FV_2013_May.ppt September 04 2013 18:21:22. hrs
FV_20130829.ppt August 30 2013 15:48:20. hrs
FV_20130824.ppt August 25 2013 15:43:43. hrs
FV_20130819.ppt August 20 2013 13:48:06. hrs
FV_20130814.ppt August 16 2013 13:26:08. hrs
FV_20130809.ppt August 10 2013 14:10:28. hrs
FV_20130804.ppt August 05 2013 15:25:44. hrs
FV_20130730.ppt July 31 2013 17:53:16. hrs
FV_20130725.ppt July 26 2013 12:49:43. hrs
FV_20130720.ppt July 21 2013 19:08:43. hrs
FV_20130715.ppt July 16 2013 17:25:33. hrs
FV_20130710.ppt July 11 2013 13:47:54. hrs
FV_20130705.ppt July 06 2013 13:46:02. hrs
FV_20130630.ppt July 02 2013 23:05:32. hrs
FV_20130626.ppt June 26 2013 19:50:48. hrs
FV_20130616.ppt June 18 2013 17:46:28. hrs

 
 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has been providing experimental real-time forecast of the active-break spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall since 2011 up to 4 pentad lead using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS) based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). The EPS will generate a large number of forecasts from different initial conditions so that the expected forecast and also the expected spreads or uncertainties in terms of probability from this forecast can be informed. Comparison is shown between CFSv2 skill and the atmosphere only GFSv2 model forced with bias corrected SST forecasted from CFSv2. Forecast is generated after every 5 day since 16 May. The pentad prediction skill may be considered as the intraseasonal variability prediction skill and is a more rigorous way of evaluating the model's hindcast skill. In addition to this, some aspects of large-scale Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations are also presented here. Predictions and verification have been done over 4 different homogeneous regions of India where ISMR is more or less homogeneous. The selected regions are Central India (CEI), North-East India (NEI), North-West India (NWI), South peninsula (SPI) and a broader region, monsoon core zone of India (MZI).