Monsoon Mission
"To Improve Prediction Skill of Monsoon Weather and Climate"
Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Science
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Publication - 2012

1. Pokhrel S., Chaudhari H.S., Saha S.K., Dhakate A., Yadav R.K., Salunke K., Mahapatra S., Suryachandra A. Rao,
ENSO, IOD and Indian summer monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system,
Climate Dynamics, 39, November 2012, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1349-5, 2143-2165, Impact Factor 3.843
2. Pokhrel S., Rahaman H., Parekh A., Saha S.K., Dhakate A., Chaudhari H.S., Gairola R.M.,
Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2),
Climate Dynamics, 39, November 2012, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1542-6, 2585-2608, Impact Factor 3.843
3. Samala B.K., Krishnan R., Roxy M.,
Assessment of one month forecasts of weak Indian monsoons based on the NCEP climate forecast system,
Meteorological Applications, 19, June 2012, DOI: 10.1002/met.1331, 189-199, Impact Factor 1.402

Publication - 2013

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4. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Pattnaik S., De S.,
Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system,
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 100-101, August 2013, DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.017, 13-23, Impact Factor 1.596
5. Chowdary J.S., Chaudhari H.S., Gnanaseelan C., Parekh A., Rao Suryachandra A., Sreenivas P., Pokhrel S., Singh P.,
Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system,
Climate Dynamics, online, June 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1826-5, 1-23, Impact Factor 4.602
6. Pattnaik S., Abhilash S., De S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Goswami B.N.,
Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective,
Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1662-7, 341–365, Impact Factor 4.602
7. Saha Subodh K., Pokhrel S., Chaudhari H.S., Dhakate A., Shewale S., Sabeerali C.T., Salunke K., Hazra A., Mahapatra S., Suryachandra A. Rao,
Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run,
International Journal of Climatology, online, July 2013, DOI:10.1002/joc.3791, 1-14, Impact Factor 2.906
8. Sooraj K.P., Seo K-H,
Boreal summer intraseasonal variability simulated in the NCEPclimate forecast system: insights from moist static energy budget and sensitivity to convective moistening,
Climate Dynamics, 41, September 2013, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1631-6, 1569-1594, Impact Factor 4.602
9. Chaudhari H.S., Pokhrel S., Mohanty S., Saha S.K.,
Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,
114, November 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-0854-8, 459-477, Impact Factor 1.942
10. Chaudhari H.S., Pokhrel S., Saha S.K., Dhakate A., Yadav R.K., Salunke K., Mahapatra S., Sabeerali C.T., Suryachandra A. Rao,
Model biases in long coupled runs of NCEP CFS in the context of Indian summer monsoon,
International Journal of Climatology, 33, April 2013, DOI:10.1002/joc.3489, 1057-1069, Impact Factor 2.906
11. Pokhrel S., Dhakate A., Chaudhari H.S., Saha S.K.,
Status of NCEP CFS vis-a-vis IPCC AR4 models for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon,
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 111, January 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00704-012-0652-8, 65-78, Impact Factor 1.942
12. Saha Subodh K., Pokhrel S., Chaudhari H.S.,
Influence of Eurasian snow on Indian summer monsoon in NCEP CFSv2 freerun,
Climate Dynamics, 41, October 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1617-4, 1801-1815, Impact Factor 4.602
13. Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Krishna R.P.M.,Joseph Susmitha, Roxy M., De S., Pattnaik S., Pillai P.A.,
Simulation and Extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework,
Current Science, 104, May 2013, 1394-1408, Impact Factor 0.935
14. C.T. Sabeerali, R.A. Dandi, A.R. Dhakate, K.Salunke, S. Mahapatra and S.A. Rao,
2013: Simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the latest CMIP5 coupled GCMs,
Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50403.

Publication - 2014

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15. Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Pattnaik S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar,
Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System,
International Journal of Climatology, 34, January 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3668, 98-113, Impact Factor 2.886
16. Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Pattnaik S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar,
Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall?,
Atmospheric Science Letters, 15, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/asl2.477, 114–119
17. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar,
Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2,
Climate Dynamics, 42, May 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9, 2801-2815
18. Borah N., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. , Joseph S., Sharmila S., Kumar A.,
Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon,
International Journal of Climatology, online, October 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.4178, 1-17
19. Chaudhari H.S., Pokhrel S., Saha Subodh K., Dhakate A., Hazra A.,
Improved depiction of Indian summer monsoon in latest high resolution NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis,
International Journal of Climatology, online, November 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.4196, 1-18
20. Chowdary J.S., Chaudhari H.S., Gnanaseelan C., Parekh A., Rao Suryachandra A., Sreenivas P., Pokhrel S., Singh P.,
Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system,
Climate Dynamics, 42, April 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1826-5, 1925-1947
21. Ganai M., Mukhopadhyaya P., Phani Murali Krishna R., Mahakur M.,
Impact of revised simplified Arakawa–Schubert convection parameterization scheme in CFSv2 on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon,
Climate Dynamics, online, September 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2320-4, 1-22
22. Goswami B.B., Deshpande M.S., Mukhopadhyay P., Saha Subodh K., Rao Suryachandra A., Murthugudde R., Goswami B.N.,
Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal variability in NCEP CFSv2 and its role on systematic bias,
Climate Dynamics, 43, November 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2089-5, 2725-2745
23. Saha Subodh K., Pokhrel S., Chaudhari H.S., Dhakate A., Shewale S., Sabeerali C.T., Salunke K., Hazra A., Mahapatra S., Suryachandra A. Rao,
Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run,
International Journal of Climatology, 34, April 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3791,1628–1641
24. Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Joseph S., Sharmila S, Rajeevan M.,
High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment,
Climate Dynamics, online, June 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9, 1-12

Publication - 2015

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25. Hazra A, Chaudhari H.S., A.S. Rao., Goswami B.N., Dhakate A., Pokhrel S., Saha S.K.,
Impact of revised cloud microphysical scheme in CFSv2 on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.
International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4320 December 2015,Vol 35, PP4738-4755.
26. Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B. and Arun Kumar,
Improved spread-error relationship and probabilistic prediction from CFS based grand ensemble system,
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2015, accepted on 14 April 2015.
27. Chaudhari H.S., S. Pokhrel, H. Rahman, A. Dhakate, S. K. Saha, S. Pentakota, Gairola R.M.,
Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall : Studies by observation and NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2),
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1521-z May 2015.
28. Chattopadhyay Rajib, R. Phani, C. T. Sabeerali, A. R. Dhakate, K. Salunke, S. Mahapatra, A. Suryachandra Rao, and B. N. Goswami,
Influence of Extra-tropical Sea Surface Temperature on the Indian summer Monsoon: An unexplored source of seasonal predictability,
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (QJRMS), DOI:10.1002/qj.2562;
29. Chowdary J.S., Parekh A., Ojha S., Gnanaseelan C.
Role of upper ocean processes in the seasonal SST evolution over tropical Indian Ocean in climate forecasting system,
Climate Dynamics, online, January 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2478-4, 1-19
30. Bidyut B. Goswami, R. P. M. Krishna, P. Mukhopadhyay, Marat Khairoutdinov, and B. N. Goswami,
Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the Superparameterized Climate Forecast System Version 2: Preliminary Results.
J. Climate,Vol: 28, Issue:21, November, 8988–9012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00607.1
31. Chaudhari H. S., S. Pokhrel, A. Kulkani, A. Hazra, S. K. Saha,
Clouds-SST relationship and interannual variability modes of Indian summer monsoon in the context of clouds and SSTs: Observational and modelling aspects,
International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4664. February 2016.
32. Saha S. K., S. Pokhrel, K. Salunke, A. Dhakate, H. S. Chaudhari, H. Rahman, K. Sujith, A. Hazra, D. R. Sikka,
Potential Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in NCEP CFSv2,
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI:10.1002/2015MS000542. February 2016.
33. Saha S. K., K. Sujith, S. Pokhrel, H. S. Chaudhari, A. Hazra,
Predictability of global monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2,
Climate Dynamics, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2928-z. December 2015.
34. Chattopadhyay R., Suryachandra A. Rao, Sabeerali C.T., George G., Rao Nagarjuna D., Dhakate A., Salunke K.,
Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs,
International Journal of Climatology, online, December 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4556, 1-17

Publication - 2016

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35. Abhik S., Mukhopadhyay P., Krishna R.P.M., Salunke K.D., Dhakate A.R., Suryachandra A. Rao,
Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system,
Climate Dynamics, 46, May 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2769-9, 3287-3303, Impact Factor 4.673
36. Chaudhari H.S., Hazra A., Saha Subodh K., Dhakate A., Pokhrel S.,
Indian summer monsoon simulations with CFSv2: a microphysics perspective,
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125, July 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00704-015-1515, 253-269, Impact Factor 2.015
37. Chaudhari H.S., Pokhrel S., Kulkarni Aiay, Hazra A., Subodh Kumar Saha,
Clouds SST relationship and interannual variability modes of Indian summer monsoon in the context of clouds and SSTs:observational and modelling aspects,
International Journal of Climatology, online, February 2016, DOI:10.1002/joc.4664, 1-18, Impact Factor 3.157
38. De S., Hazra A., Chaudhari H.S.,
Does the modification in “critical relative humidity” of NCEP CFSv2 dictate Indian mean summer monsoon forecast? Evaluation through thermodynamical and dynamical aspects,
Climate Dynamics, 46, February 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2640-z, 1197-1222, Impact Factor 4.673
39. George G., Rao Nagarjuna D., Sabeerali C.T., Srivastava Ankur, Suryachandra A. Rao,
Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model,
Atmospheric Science Letters, 17, January 2016, DOI:10.1002/asl.599, 57-64, Impact Factor 1.521
40. Halder M., Mukhopadhyay P.,
Microphysical processes and hydrometeor distributions associated with thunderstorms over India: WRF (cloud-resolving) simulations and validations using TRMM,
Natural Hazards, online, June 2016, DOI:10.1007/s11069-016-2365-2, 1-31, Impact Factor 1.791
41. Hazra A., Chaudhari H.S., Dhakate A.,
Evaluation of cloud properties in the NCEP CFSv2 model and its linkage with Indian summer monsoon,
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 124, April 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00704-015-1404-3, 31-41, Impact Factor 2.015
42. Hazra A., Chaudhari H.S., Pokhrel S., Saha Subodh K.,
Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: role of microphysical process rates,
Climate Dynamics, 46, April 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2717-8, 2551-2571, Impact Factor 4.673
43. Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Rajeevan M., Mandal R., Dey A., Borah N., Phani R.,
Extremes in June rainfall during Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational Analysis and Extended range prediction,
Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 142, April 2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730, 1276-1289, Impact Factor 3.252
44. Pokhrel S., Saha Subodh K., Dhakate A., Rahman H., Chaudhari H.S., Salunke K., Hazra A., Sujith K., Sikka D.R.,
Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error,
Climate Dynamics, 46, April 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2703-1, 2305-2326, Impact Factor 4.673
45. Ramu D. A., Sabeerali C. T., Chattopadhyay R., Rao D. N., George G., Dhakate A. R., Salunke K., Srivastava A., Suryachandra A. Rao,
Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution,
Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, March 2016, DOI:10.1002/2015JD024629, 1-17, Impact Factor 3.426
46. Ranalkar M.R., Chaudhari H.S., Hazra A., Sawaisarje G.K., Pokhrel S.,
Dynamical features of incessant heavy rainfall event of June 2013 over Uttarakhand, India,
Natural Hazards, 80, February 2016, DOI:10.1007/s11069-015-2040-z, 1579–1601, Impact Factor 1.719
47. Saha Subodh K., Pokhrel S., Salunke K., Dhakate A., Chaudhari H.S., Rahaman H., Sujith K., Hazra A., Sikka D.R.,
Potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2,
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, February 2016, DOI:10.1002/2015MS000542, 1-25, Impact Factor 4.922
48. SnehlataTirkey and P. Mukhopadhyay, 2016,
Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation,
Theor. Appl. Climatol., Online published on 30 April 2016, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1811-0, 1-37.
49. Pillai P.A., Rao S.A., George G., Rao D.N., Mahapatra S., Rajeevan M., Dhakate A., Salunke K.,
How distinct are the two flavors of El Niño in retrospective forecasts of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)?,
Climate Dynamics, online, August 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382, 1-26-016-3305-2, 1-26.
50. Pillai P.A., Chowdary J.S.,
Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation associated with the developing and decaying phase of El Niño,
International Journal of Climatology, 36, March 2016, DOI:10.1002/joc.4464, 1846-1862.
51. Goswami, B.N., S.A. Rao, D. Sengupta, and S. Chakravorty. 2016,
Monsoons to Mixing in the Bay of Bengal: Multiscale Air-Sea Interactions and Monsoon Predictability,
Oceanography 29(2):18–27

Research Reports

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1. Abhilash, S., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Pattnaik S., Krishna P. M., Dey S., Sahai A. K. and Goswami B. N., 2012, Performance of an Ensemble Prediction System based on CFSV2 for the Extended Range Prediction of Active-Break Spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall during 2011, IITM Research Report, No. RR-128.
2. Mandke Sujata K., Shinde M.A., A.K. Sahai The importance of coupled sea surface temperatures to the Northward propagation of summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation, IITM Research Report March 2013 RR-129
3. Borah, N., Abhilash, S., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., and Sahai A. K., 2013, Development of Extended Range Prediction System using CFSv2 and Its Verification, IITM Research Report, RR-130.
4. Extended Range Prediction of Uttarakhand Heavy Rainfall Event by an Ensemble Prediction System based on CFSv2, Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, N. Borah, P.A. Pillai, R. Chattopadhyay, Arun Kumar, 2013, IITM Research Report, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/03(2013)/180, RR-131.