The Seasonal Prediction System has been officially transferred to India Meteorological Department for operational forecasts. Henceforth, the updated forecasts can be obtained from http://imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Models.html
 
 
 
 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has started providing experimental real-time seasonal forecasts of the Indian Summer Monsoon, as well as other major climate phenomenon such as El-Nino and Indian Ocean dipole. These forecasts are based on the high resolution version of state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), which provides an atmospheric resolution of about 38 km in the horizontal. The forecasts are generated using an ensemble of minimum 40 members, which are initialized every calendar month using atmospheric initial conditions provided by ESSO-NCMRWF and the oceanic initial conditions provided by ESSO-IITM & ESSO-INCOIS. The model climatology is generated using 29-year hindcast runs which is ensemble mean of 10-12 members (depending on the calendar month used for initialization).