Introduction

The livelihood of over 60 per cent of the world's population depends upon the monsoons, of which the Asian summer monsoon is the largest.  Accurate predictions of the monsoons, at least a season in advance, are therefore crucial for the monsoon regions.  Furthermore, the Asian summer monsoon is a key component of the earth's climate system, having important teleconnections with global weather and climate.

Sir Gilbert Walker

Following the Great Indian Drought of 1877, H.F. Blanford, who had established the India Meteorological Department in 1875, issued the first seasonal forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall in 1884.  Later, in the early part of the 20th century, Sir Gilbert Walker initiated extensive studies of global teleconnections which led him to the discovery of Southern Oscillation. Walker introduced, for the first time, the concept of correlation for long-range forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon and his findings are relevant even today.

More than 100 years later, forecasts and hindcasts (backcasts) of the Asian summer monsoon are still being made using statistical regression, often with remarkable success.

General circulation models are also capable of capturing some of the features of the Asian summer monsoon and may be able to give improved short-term forecasts.

Unlike ENSO predictions, however, very little material appears to be directly available on the internet and therefore in August 1997 we created a web site which aims to remedy this deficit. On this site, we have been working towards the broad aim of putting together information pertinent to the techniques of predicting the Asian monsoon, and predictions (forecasts or hindcasts) of the Asian monsoon. Information on the latest monsoon status is also included, for those who are interested in real-time monsoon-watch.

In due course, we hope that the site becomes a useful repository of information for scientific researchers interested in the Asian monsoon and its prediction. We would also like to have a forum on this site for on-line debate on the topic, if there is sufficient interest. Like the Asian monsoon, the site is being continually updated daily so please keep watching the site for latest information.