THE FEARS EXPRESSED by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and
Computer Simulation in Bangalore about rainfall being below
normal this year would make the scene look bleaker than it is
already because of the acute drought ravaging many parts of the
country. The poor prospects are seen as a break with the 12-year
run of normal monsoons.
There could not be a gloomier prediction than the one coming from
the Bangalore centre particularly for the people in the southern
region. The failure of the northeast monsoon between October and
December last year is making its impact felt right now with all
water sources having gone dry and the people, particularly of the
most vulnerable sections, having to wait in serpentine queues to
get their requirements of water from tankers under a blazing sun.
If there is not much hope of the southwest monsoon, which
normally sets in in May or June, being as plentiful as it should
be, the agony over the entire country would be prolonged during
the rest of the year as well. If, in spite of this, the
Government is hopeful of successfully managing the situation, it
should be because of the 12-year long spell of normal monsoons
which have ensured adequate availability of water and foodgrains
elsewhere in the country for being rushed to the drought-stricken
regions. The huge increases in food production during the years
of the Green Revolution have no doubt taken the country very far
away from the earlier years when failing monsoons and drought
exposed large populations to famine, prolonged starvation and
death. This qualitative change on the agricultural scene since
independence is wholly attributable to the response of the
farming fraternity to the promises held out by high-yielding
varieties. This does not, however, justify any complacency as one
could readily see from media projections of both people and
cattle on the move from the drought-stricken parts in search of
water and food. The country still remains exposed to capricious
monsoons when they take a break with a succession of normal
downpours.
India's vulnerability to failing monsoons continues to throw a
heavy responsibility on the governments for ensuring that if the
hardship caused to the people cannot be wholly eliminated, it
should be resolutely contained. Since the people suffer much more
when water sources dry up during a sizzling summer coming in the
wake of a deficient monsoon, relief measures should focus on
alleviating the misery. According to an assessment made by the
Central Water Commission, scarcity conditions creep in when the
per capita availability of water drops below 1,000 cubic metres.
The total annual availability of renewable fresh water in India
is placed at 1,869 billion cubic metres which ensured a total per
capita availability of 2,213 and 2,000 cubic metres in 1991 and
1996 respectively . The growing population would reduce the
availability to 2,018 cubic metres in 2000 and could come
dangerously close to scarcity conditions when it drops to 1,479
cubic metres in 2018. A national policy should provide for
transfer of water from surplus basins to deficit areas, adoption
of practices for efficient and economic use of water and laying
of emphasis on water conservation. The other measures include
rain water harvesting and watershed management.
The drifting away of rain-bearing clouds after their taking shape
from evaporation of sea water continues to mock at the people
living in the coastal areas. Efforts at artificial rain-making by
puncturing these clouds have so far not been very successful. A
better understanding of the formation of the clouds and how their
drift could be controlled should go a long way towards getting
more rains for the parched lands.