Harish Damodaran
Somasekhar Mulugu
NEW DELHI, Oct. 5
FOR the nth time _ 12 in a row, to be precise _ the country has experienced a normal-to-excess monsoon year. And as before, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), we are told, has got it right this time too. How valid are these observations?
For this, one needs to, first of all, understand what exactly the IMD means by a `normal' south-west monsoon. The benchmark used for gauging monsoon performance is the long period average (LPA) level, which is the average historical rainfall recorded during the monsoon period (June-September) over this century. At an all-India level, the LPA works out to 903.4 mm, which, in turn, varies from 281 mm for west Rajasthan to 3,178 mm for coastal Karnataka.
For the country as a whole, the monsoon for any year is considered `normal' if the total rainfall for the four-month period ranges between 90 and 110 per cent of the LPA, which, in absolute terms, varies from 813 mm to 994 mm. Anything above 110 per cent (994 mm) is tantamount to `excess' monsoon and any figure below 90 per cent (813 mm) is deemed to be `deficient'.
Thus, all that is required for a monsoon to be called `normal' is for the total rainfall during June-September across the country to average above 813 mm _ never mind if this is brought about by, say floods in Bihar or drought in Saurashtra, or if there are hardly any rains during June-July (the crucial period when sowing takes place) and heavy downpour in the second half (when the crops probably do not really require it).
It is in this `average' context that India has been receiving munificent monsoons since 1988, with the IMD's forecasts of normal monsoons being invariably vindicated (see Table 1). True, the IMD had predicted this year's monsoon rainfall to be eight per cent above the LPA, whereas it actually turned out to be 4.50 per cent below the LPA. But the monsoon has been `normal' nevertheless!
At a disaggregated meteorological sub-division or district-wise level, the concept of a `normal' monsoon becomes even more open-ended. Here, deviations of up to 20 per cent on each side from the respective LPA for each sub-division or district is allowed to classify the monsoon as `normal' (this is similar to the exit poll forecasting models, which permit higher error margins at the State-level, compared to the all-India macro picture that may emerge closer to the actuals).
It is on this count again that 28 out of the 35 sub-divisions and 67 per cent of the country's districts are considered to have received `normal' rains this year (see Table 2).
The spatial dimensions of this year's monsoon performance can better be appreciated from Table 3, which depicts the LPA for each meteorological sub-division of the country and the actual rainfall received during the current season from June 1 to September 30. As it may be seen, in as many as 26 out of the 35 sub-divisions, the rainfall levels this time have plunged below their LPAs, with the monsoon being on the `negative side of normal'.
And even here, it may be noted that two of the nine sub-divisions that witnessed monsoon rainfall above the LPA _ west Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh _ were on the negative side of normal for the entire crucial first half of the season. As regards the remaining seven, there are sub-divisions such as coastal Karnataka, which already boast of high LPAs and an increase over there makes little difference.
Similarly, precipitation exceeding LPAs in Lakshadweep, western UP hills or sub-Himalayan West Bengal have little relevance to the country's agricultural profile. That leaves Bihar, which has witnessed about 20 per cent excess rains this year and the resultant floods have helped neither the cause of the State's agriculture nor Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav's electoral campaign. On the whole, therefore, the performance of the south-west monsoon this year can hardly be termed `normal', even if the IMD says otherwise.
But a question that still needs to be asked is: Do monsoons really make a difference to Indian agriculture? Broadly speaking, the answer is `yes', as the poor groundnut crop in Gujarat and the dip in kharif coarse cereals output this year (due to deficient rains in many parts of MP and Rajasthan) would testify.
On the other hand, however, consider the really prosperous agricultural regions of the country _ Punjab, Haryana, western UP plains, coastal Andhra and western MP. These areas actually receive monsoon rainfall below the all-India average or, for that matter, even below the levels of their adjoining regions (eastern UP, Telangana, eastern MP). In spite of their being less monsoon-endowed, these regions have performed well compared to their relatively better monsoon-endowed counterparts.
The reason is simple: Better irrigation infrastructure that has insulated their agriculture from monsoon vagaries. It is only during the last decade and half that one has seen the Green Revolution spreading to the eastern Indian States, which have not really suffered from any dearth of monsoon precipitation, as much as inadequate exploitation of groundwater potential.