By P.Sunderarajan
NEW DELHI, MAY. 3.The monsoon is likely to be below normal this year across the country and not in just some regions.
Official sources conceded that the preliminary findings of experts at the India Meteorological Department had indicated that there could be a shortfall in rain this summer.
There is more trouble in store for the Government, already grappling with a drought in some parts of the country. According to projections the monsoon is likely to be below normal this year across the country, a break from the pattern of normal monsoon experienced over the last 12 years.
Senior officials admitted today that the predictions of researchers at the Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation that the rainfall this summer may be less than 90 per cent of the average may perhaps not be ``off the mark''. They conceded that the initial findings of experts at the India Meteorological Department, the apex weather forecast agency, also indicated that there could be a shortfall in rainfall this year.
They, however, declined to go on record on the ground that the IMD's findings, which took into consideration more parameters, were only preliminary and the final picture would emerge only by the end of the month. The mathematical model adopted by the IMD took into account 16 regional and global land- ocean-atmospheric parameters and the values of the individual parameters were based on observations over different periods specific to the parameter. So far, the complete set of data was available only for eight parameters. For the rest, it was still being collected and the process would continue till the month end. The parameters taken into account range from an assessment of the snow cover in Eurasia during December and the atmospheric pressure in Argentina (in April) and Darwin, Australia (in spring) to the snow cover in the Himalayas from January to March, and temperatures over northern India in March, the east coast in March and central India in May.
Normally, the country receives 880 mm of rainfall during the monsoon, and this year, as per the predictions of the Bangalore- based Centre as also the IMD's preliminary findings, it may be about 790 mm, a shortfall of over 10 per cent.
Meanwhile, a committee of Secretaries under the chairmanship of the Cabinet Secretary, Mr. Prabhat Kumar, this evening reviewed the drought situation and the relief measures being taken to tide over the current crisis. According to reports received from the State Governments, 2,095 habitations in Gujarat and 821 villages in Rajasthan were being supplied drinking water through tankers. Besides, the two States are also installing and repairing handpumps and constructing tubewells for supply of water in the drought-affected areas. Besides, the two States have opened large number of fodder depots and are distributing foodgrains at below the poverty line rates from the special allocation made by the Centre. The Centre allocated 5.62 lakh tonnes of foodgrains to Rajasthan, 4.19 lakh tonnes to Gujarat and one lakh tonnes to Andhra Pradesh.