The worst-hit by the absence of heavy rains is Gujarat.Gone is the initial euphoria when rain lashed the regions worst-affected by drought in Saurashtra and Kutch and provided people a ray of hope.
According to figures culled from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall has now fallen below the deficient mark and hit a new low - so it is now defined as `scanty rainfall'. In fact, in most areas it has hit the dreaded `no rainfall' mark. In the week beginning June 15, rainfall in Suarashtra and Kutch was deficient by almost 78 per cent. Which means a dismal 9.8mm that translated into a few paltry drops here and there. West Rajasthan received 7 mm of rain, which translates into 52 per cent deficiency. East Rajasthan was in better shape though with 22.7 per cent, which is considered normal for that region at this time of the year.
``And progress of the monsoons does not mean that it will rain necessarily,'' says a senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The onset of the monsoons is critical from the farmer's point of view as it is critical for transplantation of crops. ``If the weather is not suitable, then their crops could be in trouble,'' said a IITM scientist.
But there is hope, says Dr K Rupa Kumar from the IITM. ``June is the intra-season transition period. If the dryness progresses into the critical months of July and August, then we would be worried. But for right now, the pattern of rainfall is fairly decent.''
So don't push the panic button yet. Rupa Kumar's website on the advancement of monsoons in India, created along with Dr DB Stephenson of Redding University, UK, shows that the initial period has been good.
``In fact in the initial period we received above normal rainfall.'' The graphics on the website based on data culled from the IMD bear testimony to the same. But after June 14, rainfall went down appreciably and after touching the normal, graph shows a downward spiral.
``The monsoons are stationary,'' said Dr DS Desai, director, weather forecasting, IMD. ``We do not expect the monsoons to progress any further and chances are that people will have to wait for some more time.''
This, while the monsoon progressed comfortably into the northern areas including Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, rest of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and the north-east. But there's hope s the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has predicted excess rainfall not only for the whole country but also for Gujarat.
Bungled forecast Panic had spread across farmers in the south-eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh (a traditionally arid zone) when the Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS) forecasted deficient rainfall for the region. ``Farmers in the Ananthpur region there used to cultivate drought resistant crops like jowar and bajra. But in the last few years, they had moved onto cash crops like groundnut getting better returns,'' said a scientist at the IITM.
All that changed this year due to the CMMACS forecast which got a lot of publicity and prompted the farmers not to plant any crops. And now that these areas have received a fairly good amount of rainfall (in addition to an early onset of rainfall), the farmers have been left high and dry as their letters to various weather forecasting bodies across the country suggest.