Our Trend Working Group is organizing two joint symposium in the forthcoming IAGA Scientific Assembly in Toulouse, France during July 18-29, 2005.
(1) JSMA03 Short-term variability and long-term changes in the lower and middle atmosphere (ICMA and IAGA Division II)
The measurements of atmospheric constituents from space, airborne and ground based platforms have blossomed in the past two decades and so the atmospheric models. In addition this field is supporting, the development of the chemical weather or numerical environmental forecasting. The main goal of this symposium is to review our current database and knowledge on variability (both natural and human induced) of several atmospheric parameters and related effects on various time scales of hours to decades. In particular, focus would be on climate change and the greenhouse constituents, anthropogenic climate change scenarios, temperature, ozone and pollutants. The natural variations in atmosphere due to seasonal, annual, solar, ENSO, and QBO cycles.
Convener:
G. Beig, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road,
Pashan, Pune-411008, India; tel +91-20-25893600; fax +91-20-25893825;
e-mail: beig@tropmet.res.in
Co-convener: C. Sharma, National Physical Laboratory, India
(2) JSII02 Long-term trends in the upper atmosphere (IAGA Division II and ICMA)
Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, stratospheric ozone depletion, as well as long-term changes of solar and geomagnetic activity can result in long-term changes and trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere. The symposium is focused on the determination of such long-term trends and changes and the quantification of the role of anthropogenic changes (primarily greenhouse effect) versus Sun's effects in the observed trends. Model interpretation and prediction of trends of greenhouse origin is of high importance, as well. Papers dealing with observational determination of long-term trends as well as those dealing with simulations and theoretical studies of trends are welcome.
Convener: J.
Lastovicka, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Acad. Sci. Czech Rep.,
Bocni II, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic; tel +420-267103055; fax
+420-272763745; e-mail: jla@ufa.cas.cz
Co-convener: G. Beig, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
Pune, India
http://www.iugg.org/IAGA/iaga_pages/assemblies/toulouse_2005/symp_titles.htm
Trend-3 Workshop
Sozopol, Bulgaria, June 9-14, 2004.
Pune-2 Trend Workshop
Prague, Czech Republic, July 2-6, 2001.
IAMAS Scientific Assembly
Innsbruck, Austria, July 10-18, 2001.
IAGA-IASPEI Joint Scientific Assembly
Hanoi, Vietnam, August 18-30, 2001.
Symposia on "Long-term Trends in the Mesosphere Thermosphere Ionosphere System"
(IAGA Div II , ICMA)
Convener : Gufran Beig (India), beig@tropmet.res.in, Fax : +91-20-589-3825
Co-Convener : J.Lastovicka (Czech Reepublic)
ICMA- SCOSTEP- SPARC School on"Physics of the Equatorial Atmosphere"
at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy,
September 24-October 5, 2001.
Recommendations of the Workshop:
"Long Term Changes And Trends In The Atmosphere"
Held at 'Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology', Pune, India
February 16-19, 1999.
Prepared by- Dr. Gufran Beig (IITM, Pune, India)
Convener, LT-ACT'99, International Scientific Programme Committee
(for details and
comments contact -
beig@tropmet.res.in
The concluding session of the
workshop was held as the last session of the workshop on 19th
February 1999. It was chaired by Dr. Hartmut Grassl, Director, World Climate
Research Programme (WCRP), World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Members
of the concluding session panel were as follows:
Dr. Hartmut Grassl -Chairman
Dr. Gufran Beig (Secretary, International Scientific Programme Committee, SPC and Convener, LT-ACT'99)
Dr. A.P.Mitra (Member, SPC and Chairman, National Organizing Committee)
Dr. G.B.Pant (Chairman, Local Organizing Committee)
Dr. Jan Lastovicka (Member, SPC)
This important session was planned to bring out some important recommendations emerging out after the intensive discussion on various exciting papers presented during the proceedings of this workshop.
This session started with a presentation by Dr. G. Beig who briefed about the recommendations of international scientific Programme committee (meeting held during the workshop) and ended up with the concluding remarks by the chairman. After the active and exciting discussion involving all the delegates on various points recommended by SPC, the following recommendations were made from the LT-ACT'99 workshop:
Wish for stronger cooperation. Bridge gaps between tropospheric-stratospheric coupling activities and between stratospheric -mesospheric -lower thermospheric activities. Starting point may be to begin with new satellite system experiment. So this forum should bring forward a proposal for a new satellite experiment to the heads of IGAC, SPARC, GEWEX IUGG and SCOSTEP and urge that they work in cooperative mode & expand their interest with respect to atmospheric heights upto acceptable limit.
Actions Recommended ®
Working group on tropospheric-stratospheric exchange and long term monitoring should be formed. It is suggested that IGAC and SPARC (eventually WCRP) should take lead in this.
Working group on stratospheric-mesospheric-lower thermospheric exchange / coupling should also be formed. It is suggested that IAGA and SCOSPTEP / SPARC may take lead here for joint endeavor.
Above should involve working active scientists preferably young and dynamic.
Workshop endorses the view more strongly that anthropogenic effect is no longer confined to lower part of the atmosphere and it is large and measurable now in the mesosphere and thermosphere. Hence, this forum strongly recommend concern bodies (viz. SPARC) to include (or expand activities) atleast mesosphere (if possible, lower thermosphere also). Common public should be made aware of the man-made perturbations affecting the upper part of the atmosphere and resulting impact on human being. The issue of the solar forcing of the atmosphere (from above) where consideration of upper layers may help understanding the lower ones, should be given due importance. The middle atmosphere is a region where the solar and anthropogenic impacts are the largest and have to be detected, modelled and then need to be distinguished (or separated). In this point, SCOSTEP may play a major role, which should be persuaded.
Detection of climate change and the attribution of its causes seem easier in the middle atmosphere. Hence, efforts should be made along these lines for future activities. We must form panels for parameters where an assessment of changes seems promising in the middle atmosphere (other than T & O3 in the tratosphere,where it already exists). Some recommended parameters are:
Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Polar Mesospheric Clouds
Water Vapour
Parameters like Temperature, Ionization Density, etc for Mesosphere
Tropopause Heights and Temperature radiosonde Activities
Geopotential Height and Derived Zonal Winds
To monitor all the issue related to exchange and long term trend analysis, Assessment Group Formation is must. It may be under any umbrella. If it is done under any existing projects or bodies (viz. WCRP, IGBP, IUGG or SCOSTEP) then chances for success are bright. It is strongly felt that the present group (SPC) of LT-ACT'99 is competent enough to tackle all the related issues and implement the workshop recommendations independently. However, the funding may be a problem for such group for which advice and cooperation from the heads of WCRP, IGBP, IUGG, SPARC, SCOSTEP, GEWEX should be solicited.
It is realized that the data existing in South Asian countries (specially in India) and the trends emerging out from this region (as presented in a special session on South Asia during the workshop) are likely to play a key role in determining the long term atmospheric or climate change on global scale. Hence, the focus should be placed to enhance the scientific activities on this topic for this region. It has been strongly recommended to form a regional Assessment Panel (viz. atmospheric chemistry panel) for this region under some existing international scientific umbrella. This panel may propose for a powerful computing facility in this region for seeking funding support to international bodies. IITM, Pune may be a center point for such activity. SCOSTEP is urged to endorse and include this point under its Programme like EPIC.
LT-ACT'99 workshop, initiative of which has been taken by Indian scientists, has resulted in a major way and was a great success. Hence, this series should be continued and the Workshop in this series "Long Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere" must be planned for every 2 to 3 years. Dr. Jan Lastovicka (Czech Republic) has made a proposal to hold 2nd workshop at IAP, Czech Republic which may be held around mid of 2002 AD. Support of all the sponsoring scientific organizations of LT-ACT'99 should be sought for future.