Real Time Forecast

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Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 09:27:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 09:19:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 09:11:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 10:40:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 09:26:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 09:26:05. hrs


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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

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Archieval of Forecast Verification

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Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 06:54:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 07:37:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 10:58:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 11:28:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 08:37:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 11:22:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 10:27:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 08:12:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 14:37:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 11:00:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 11:00:28. hrs


Paper in reviewed Journal

  • Kaur, M., Sahai, A.K., Phani, R., Joseph, S., Mandal, R., Dey, A., Chattopadhyay, R., Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon, Clim Dyn, 2021,

  • Akhter J., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Nageswararao M.M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w, 1-12.

  • Kumar, B., Chattopadhyay, R., Singh, M. et al. Deep learning-based downscaling of summer monsoon rainfall data over Indian region. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 1145-1156 (2021).

  • E. Shroyer, A. Tandon, D. Sengupta , .., R. Chattopadhyay,..., A. K. Sahai et al. Bay of Bengal Intraseasonal Oscillations and the 2018 Monsoon Onset Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 2021,

  • Hemadri Bhusan Amat, M. Pradhan, C. T. Tejavath, Avijit Dey, S. A. Rao, A. K. Sahai and Karumuri Ashok, Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2021,

  • Lekshmi S, R Chattopadhyay, M Kaur, S Joseph, R. Phani, A Dey, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, On the role of Initial Error Growth in the Skill of Extended Range Prediction of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),, 2021arXiv:2105.04871v1.

  • Pattanaik D.R., Mandal R., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Mohapatra M., Large-scale features associated with excess monsoon rainfall over india during 2019 and the real-time extended range forecast, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y, 1-23.

  • Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Prediction of dominant daily modes of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP GFS model, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, April 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00793-2, 1-19.

  • Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Phani R., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Frontiers in Climate, 3: 655919, May 2021, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.655919, 1-11.

  • Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Manpreet Kaur, Dey A., Mandal Raju., Phani R., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework, Mausam, 72, January 2021, 57-76.

  • Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Muralikrishna R.P. , Mandal R., Dey A., Active-Break transitions of monsoons Over India as predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177, September 2020, DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2, 4391-4422.

  • Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Saha S., Awate P., Dutta S., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Pattanaik D.R., Despande S., Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters, Scientific Reports, 10:14741, September 2020, DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6, 1-13.

  • Kaur M., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Mandal M., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mukhopadhyay P., Abhilash S., Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones, Atmospheric Science Letters, 21: e971, August 2020, DOI:10.1002/asl.971, 1-11.

  • Rao Suryachandra A., Goswami B.N., Sahai A.K., Rajagopal E.N., Mukhopadhyay P. et al., Monsoon Mission : A targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, December 2019, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1, 2509-2532.

  • Raghav P, Borkotoky S S, Joseph J, Chattopadhyay R, A K Sahai and Ghosh S, Revamping Extended range forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 2020,

  • Saranya G, A. K. Sahai, S. Abhilash, S. Joseph and Manpreet Kaur, An index for capturing the genesis and evolution of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Earth and Space Science, 2020,

  • N. K. Shahi, S. Rai and A. K. Sahai, The relationship between the daily dominant monsoon modes of South Asia and SST, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2020,

  • A. Dey, R Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai, R Mandal, Susmitha Joseph, Phani R, Abhilash S, MJO prediction Skill in IITM Extended range prediction system and how does it compare with ECMWF S2S, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2020,

  • Sujata K. Mandke, Prasanth A. Pillai and A. K. Sahai, Simulation of monsoon intraseaonal oscillations in GFDL models from AMIP integrations of CMIP5, International Journal of Climatology, 2020, DOI: 10.1002/ joc.6536, Int J Climatol. 2020; 1-16.

  • Robertson A. W., Acharya N.,Goddard L., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Singh K.K., Ghosh K., Agarwal A., Buizer J.L.,, Subseasonal forecasts of the 2018 Indian summer monsoon over Bihar, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, November 2019, DOI:10.1029/2019JD031374, 13861-13875.

  • Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Phani R., Abhilash S., Operational tracking method for the MJO using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, June 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8, 2697-2717.

  • Mandal R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India, Scientific Reports, 9, June 2019, DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6, 1-11.

  • Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Muralikrishna R.P., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Tiwari A.D., Mishra V., Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors, Mausam, 70, April 2019, 233-264.

  • Chattopadhyay R., Thomas A., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Study on the capability of the NCEP-CFS model in simulating the frequency and intensity of high-intensity rainfall events over Indian region in the high and low resolutions, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5, March 2019, DOI:10.1007/s40808-018-0520-3, 85-100.

  • Dhar, R.B., Chakraborty, S., Chattopadhyay, R. et al. Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land Surface Temperature Using Satellite Data: A Case Study of Rajarhat Block, North 24-Parganas District, West Bengal. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 47, 331-348 (2019).

  • Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., enesis and track prediction of pre?monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi?model ensemble framework, Natural Hazards, 95, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6, 823-843.

  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani M.K., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Skill evaluation of extended range forecast of rainfall and temperature over meteorological subdivisions of India, Weather and Forecasting, 34, February 2019, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055, 81-101.

  • Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Ganesh S., Kaur M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Understanding the intraseasonal variability over Indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system, Mausam, 70, January 2019, 31-56.

  • Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., De S., Agarwal N.K., Sahai A.K., Devi S.S., Rajeevan M., Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intraseasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, 51, November 2018, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, 3435-3446.

  • Chattopadhyay N., Rao K.V., Sahai A.K., Balasubramanian R., Pai D.S., Pattanaik D.R., Chandras S.V., Khedikar S., Usability of extended range and seasonal weather forecast in Indian agriculture, Mausam, 69, January 2018, 29-44.

  • Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Intra-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2, International Journal of Climatology, 38 (Suppl.1), April 2018, DOI:10.1002/joc.5349, e28-e47.

  • Shrivastava S., Kar S. C., Sahai A.K., Sharma A.R., Identification of drought occurrences using Ensemble predictions up to 20-Days in advance, Water Resources Management, 32, April 2018, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9, 2113-2130.

  • Saranya G., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., New approach to improve the track prediction of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, August 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 7781-7789.

  • Sahai S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Bias?correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, 48, April 2017, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3214-4, 2437-2451.

  • Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., Pai D.S., Srivastava A.K. , Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction, Natural Hazards, 88, September 2017, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2, 853-865.

  • Shah Reepal, Sahai A K, Mishra Vimal, Short-to-medium range hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 February 2017, DOI:10-5194/hess-2016-504, 707-720.

  • Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Rajeevan M., Mandal R., Dey A., Borah N., Phani R., Extremes in June rainfall during Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational Analysis and Extended range prediction, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 142, April 2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730, 1276- 1289. ISSN 0035-9009.

  • Mandke S. K. and Sahai A. K., Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves, Natural Hazards 2016, DOI:10.1007/s11069-016 -2546-z 0921-030x.

  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Phani R., Abhilash S., Extended Range Prediction System and its Application, Vayu Mandal, 2016, January, 42, 75-96.

  • Pandey, D. K., Rai S., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S. and Shahi N. K., Prediction and error growth in the daily forecast of precipitation from the NCEP CFS v2 over the subdivisions of Indian continent, Journal of Earth System Sciences, 2016, 125 (no.1), 29-45.

  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey A., Abhilash A., Krishna R.P.M., Borah N., Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2, Current Science, 109, November 2015, 1802-1813. ISSN 0011- 3891.

  • Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Joseph S., Sharmila S, Rajeevan M., High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 44, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9, 3129-3140. ISSN 0930-7575.

  • Sharmila S., Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate Models, Global and Planetary Change, 2015, 24:62-78, DOI:10.1016 /j.gloplacha.2014.11.004, 5.

  • Pillai P. A. and Sahai A. K., Northward and eastward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Indian Ocean: Implications from moist static energy budget analysis, Climate Dynamics, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2904-7.

  • Sharmila S., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., and Goswami B.N., Asymmetry in space-time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years - Role of seasonal mean state, International Journal of Climatology, 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4100.

  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Pillai P.A., Rajeevan M., Arun Kumar, North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction, Climate Dynamics, 44, May 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5, 2049-2065 . ISSN 0930-7575.

  • Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Mapes B.E., Rajeevan M., Kumar A., Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the Real-Time prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset in a coupled model framework, Journal of Climate, 28, August 2015, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14- 00842.1, 6234-6248. ISSN 0894-8755.

  • Borah N., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. , Joseph S., Sharmila S., Kumar A., Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, 35, October 2015, I:10.1002/joc.4178, 2860-2876. ISSN 0899-8418.

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Improved Spread-Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578. ISSN 1558-8424.

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Better spread-error relationship in a multimodel ensemble prediction system, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, August 2015, 1228-1229. ISSN 0273-0979.

  • Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., New method to compute the principal components from self-organizing maps: an application to monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, International Journal of Climatology, 34, July 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3885, 2925-2939. 0899-8418.

  • Pillai P.A., Sahai A.K., Moist dynamics of active/break cycle of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from NCEPR2 and MERRA reanalysis, International Journal of Climatology, 34, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3774, 1429-1444. ISSN 0899-8418.

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, May 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9, 2801- 2815. ISSN 0930-7575.

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N, Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall?, Atmospheric Science Letters, 15, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/asl2.477, 114-119. ISN 1530-261X

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Pattnaik S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, January 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3668, 98-11. ISN 0899-8418.

  • Sharmila Sur, Pillai P.A., Joseph S., Roxy M., Krishna R.P.M., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N., Role of ocean-atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO), Climate Dynamics, 41, September 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1854- 1, 1651-1669. . ISSN 0930-7575.

  • Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph Susmitha, Roxy M., De S., Pattnaik S., Pillai P.A., Simulation and Extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework, Current Science, 104, May 2013, 1394-1408. ISSN 0011-3891.

  • Pattnaik S., Abhilash S., De S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Goswami B.N., Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective, Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1662-7, 341-365. ISSN 0930-7575.

  • Borah N., Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Goswami B.N., Self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon, Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, August 2013, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50688, 1-13. ISSN 0148-0227.

  • Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Pattnaik S., De S., Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 100-101, August 2013, DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.017, 13-23. ISSN 0021-9169.

  • Published Book Chapters

    • A. K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M. Krishna, D.R. Pattanaik, S. Abhilash, Chapter 20 - Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases, Editor(s): Andrew W. Robertson, Frederic Vitart, Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, Elsevier,2019, Pages 421-438,ISBN 9780128117149,

    • Vincent Moron, Rodrigo Bombardi, Harry Hendon, Andrew Marshall, Atul Kumar Sahai and Rajib Chattopadhyay, Monsoon Sub-seasonal Prediction in the Abstract volume of the book The Sixth WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-VI), 2019, Accepted in Full book pp. 140-147, Available at:

    • Chattopadhyay R., Chakraborty S., Sahai A.K. (2019) Impact of Climatic Stress on Groundwater Resources in the Coming Decades Over South Asia. In: Sikdar P. eds Groundwater Development and Management. Springer, Cham.