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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2021

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211229.ppt December 30 2021 05:29:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211222.ppt December 23 2021 05:57:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211215.ppt December 16 2021 11:14:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211208.ppt December 09 2021 06:46:22. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211201.ppt December 02 2021 10:07:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211124.ppt November 25 2021 17:40:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211117.ppt November 18 2021 18:09:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211110.ppt November 11 2021 09:36:50. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211103.ppt November 05 2021 07:29:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211027.ppt October 28 2021 06:43:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211020.ppt October 21 2021 07:09:16. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211013.ppt October 14 2021 07:46:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211006.ppt October 07 2021 09:00:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210929.ppt September 30 2021 09:49:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210922.ppt September 23 2021 06:09:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210915.ppt September 16 2021 06:05:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210908.ppt September 09 2021 06:10:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210901.ppt September 02 2021 10:42:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210825.ppt August 26 2021 05:51:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210818.ppt August 19 2021 06:52:59. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210811.ppt August 12 2021 13:41:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210804.ppt August 05 2021 12:28:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210728.ppt July 29 2021 06:53:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210721.ppt July 22 2021 06:11:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210714.ppt July 15 2021 06:12:30. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210707.ppt July 08 2021 05:45:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210630.ppt July 01 2021 06:32:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210623.ppt June 24 2021 06:18:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210616.ppt June 17 2021 06:41:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210609.ppt June 10 2021 07:34:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210602.ppt June 03 2021 05:53:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210526.ppt May 27 2021 05:43:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210519.ppt May 20 2021 05:51:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210512.ppt May 13 2021 09:38:29. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210505.ppt May 06 2021 05:00:18. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210428.ppt April 29 2021 06:21:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210421.ppt April 22 2021 06:47:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210414.ppt April 15 2021 07:07:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210407.ppt April 08 2021 14:00:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210331.ppt April 01 2021 10:45:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210324.ppt March 25 2021 06:52:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210317.ppt March 18 2021 06:22:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210310.ppt March 11 2021 05:15:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210303.ppt March 04 2021 05:55:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210224.ppt February 25 2021 05:20:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210217.ppt February 18 2021 05:34:56. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210210.ppt February 11 2021 06:56:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210203.ppt February 04 2021 07:02:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210127.ppt January 28 2021 05:57:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210120.ppt January 21 2021 05:48:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210113.ppt January 14 2021 06:19:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210106.ppt January 07 2021 07:44:26. hrs

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2022

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220511.ppt May 12 2022 06:08:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220504.ppt May 05 2022 13:06:48. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220427.ppt April 28 2022 05:58:21. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220420.ppt April 21 2022 09:53:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220413.ppt April 14 2022 10:52:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220406.ppt April 07 2022 07:56:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220330.ppt March 31 2022 07:08:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220323.ppt March 24 2022 14:57:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220316.ppt March 17 2022 06:08:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220309.ppt March 10 2022 07:24:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220302.ppt March 03 2022 07:38:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220223.ppt February 24 2022 07:11:29. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220216.ppt February 17 2022 05:44:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220209.ppt February 10 2022 16:40:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220202.ppt February 03 2022 07:44:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220126.ppt January 27 2022 07:35:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220119.ppt January 20 2022 06:52:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220112.ppt January 13 2022 06:40:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220105.ppt January 07 2022 12:57:06. hrs

 
 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has been providing experimental real-time forecast of the active-break spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall since 2011 up to 4 pentad lead using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS) based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). The EPS will generate a large number of forecasts from different initial conditions so that the expected forecast and also the expected spreads or uncertainties in terms of probability from this forecast can be informed. Comparison is shown between CFSv2 skill and the atmosphere only GFSv2 model forced with bias corrected SST forecasted from CFSv2. Forecast is generated after every 5 day since 16 May. The pentad prediction skill may be considered as the intraseasonal variability prediction skill and is a more rigorous way of evaluating the model's hindcast skill. In addition to this, some aspects of large-scale Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations are also presented here. Predictions and verification have been done over 4 different homogeneous regions of India where ISMR is more or less homogeneous. The selected regions are Central India (CEI), North-East India (NEI), North-West India (NWI), South peninsula (SPI) and a broader region, monsoon core zone of India (MZI).