Virtual International Conference on the “Future directions of Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction over South Asia”,

29th - 31st March 2021, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

Jointly organised by IITM and WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project of WMO

Background

Modelling community is making concerted efforts to address the challenging problem of predicting weather and climate at sub seasonal to seasonal (S2S) scales that have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts. The S2S prediction project initiated by WMO focuses on improving the forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events, and to promote the initiatives uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community.

The challenges faced by the S2S community all over the world include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the source of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and skill assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; and linking research, operations, and users. Therefore, platforms those discuss the progress and accomplishments in S2S predictions would bring together the scientists, producers, and users who are at the forefront of S2S prediction and related research, development, and application areas to foster the exchange of information and knowledge between the communities towards more seamless predictions.

With this background, we organize an "International conference on the future directions of subseasonal to seasonal prediction over South Asia" during 29th-31st March 2021. This conference aims to review our current abilities to make skilful predictions on S2S scale and to identify new initiatives, collaborations, and emerging science questions.

At the end of this conference, it is also proposed to honour the significant contributions made by A. K. Sahai, Scientist - G, IITM in the field of climate science through his research on operational prediction of weather parameters on different time scales focusing over Indian Region. Dr Sahai is attaining his superannuation on 31st March 2021.

Proposed Themes

S2S prediction and predictability

Application of AI/ML in S2S

Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

Climate Change Projections for subseasonal variability

Societal applications of S2S prediction

Event Structure

"Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic situation, the conference would be held online. About 150 participants from various international and national organizations are expected to attend the conference virtually. There will only be invited talks. It is proposed to use a suitable professional virtual conference software (like Microsoft teams) for organizing this virtual conference."

 

Date Timing Activity Youtube Links

DAY 1

29.03.2021

08:30 - 09:00 UTC / 14:00 - 14:30 IST
09:00 - 10:40 UTC / 14:30 - 16:10 IST
10:40 - 11:00 UTC / 16:10 - 16:30 IST
11:00 - 13:00 UTC / 16:30 - 18:30 IST
Inaugural Session
Scientific Session - 1 (5 talks)
Health Break
Scientific Session - 2 (6 talks)
Day 1 : 29 March 2021

DAY 2

30.03.2021

03:30 - 05:30 UTC / 09:00 - 11:00 IST
05:30 - 05:50 UTC / 11:00 - 11:20 IST
05:50 - 07:50 UTC / 11:20 - 13:20 IST
Scientific Session - 3 (6 talks)
Health Break
Scientific Session - 4 (6 talks)
Day 2 : 30 March 2021

DAY 3

31.03.2021

08:30 - 09:30 UTC / 14:00 - 15:00 IST
09:30 - 10:00 UTC / 15:00 - 15:30 IST
10:00 - 12:00 UTC / 15:30 - 17:30 IST
Scientific Session - 5 (3 talks)
Health Break
Valedictory Session
Day 3 : 31 March 2021

 

Conference Presentations

Sr. No. Title of the Presentation Presentor Download PDF
1 Prediction of the BSISO and Asian monsoon in the WWRP/WCRP S2S Database Dr. Frederic Vitart Frederic Vitart
2 Societal applications of S2S forecast of IMD Dr. M. Mohapatra M Mohapatra
3 A Ready-Set-Go Framework for Health and Agriculture: India is a Perfect Petri dish Prof. Raghu Murtugudde Raghu Murtugudde
4 Processes and predictability in the Asian monsoon Dr. Gill Martin Gill Martin
5 Sub-seasonal rainfall predictability types over South Asia and the global tropics Dr. Andrew Robertson Andrew Robertson
6 Extraction and prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations: An approach based on nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis Dr. Ajaya Mohan Ajaya Mohan
7 Some aspects of subseasonal prediction of the South American monsoon Prof. Alice Grimm Alice Grimm
8 Estimating Long-Range Predictability: A brief overview Dr. Arun Kumar Arun_Kumar
9 Messages to S2S Numerical Modeling Study from the recent Maritime Continent Field Campaign Dr. Kunio Yoneyama Kunio Yoneyama
10 Toward an operational use of equatorial wave theory Application to the 2019 Indian Monsoon onset and withdrawal Dr. Theirry Lefort Theirry_Lefort
11 Forecast quality assessment for climate services based on S2S prediction Dr. Doblas Reyes Doblas_Reyes
12 NCMRWF Seamless Modelling System: Prediction from Days-to-Season Dr. Ashis Mitra AshisMitra
13 Lessons learnt from weather scale forecast to improve fidelity of S2S Dr. P Mukhopadhyay P_Mukhopadhyay
14 Potential applications of S2S in early warning and agriculture risk management Dr. Giriraj Amarnath Giriraj_Amarnath
15 Climate Change Projections & Monsoon Variability Dr. R Krishnan R_Krishnan
16 Engaging with farmers to explore potential benefits of S2S predictions Dr. G Srinivasan G_Srinivasan
17 Application of Extended Range Prediction ocean ensembles in developing Marine Biogeochemistry deliverables: A future perspective Dr. Vinu Valsala Vinu_Valsala
18 Storm types across India : definition, characteristics and predictability Dr. Vincent Moron Vincent_Moron
19 Enabling S2S Prediction Applications: WMO Climate Services Information System Operations Dr. Rupakumar Kolli Rupakumar_Kolli
20 Societal applications of S2S Predictions for Ocean and Coasts Dr. T.M. Balakrishnan Nair Balakrishnan

Invited Speakers

CONFIRMED INVITED SPEAKERS

Dr Estelle De Coning

WMO, Geneva

Prof. Ravi S. Nanjundiah

Director IITM, Pune, India

Dr. M. Mohapatra

DGM, IMD Delhi, India

Dr Frederic Vitart

ECMWF, UK

Dr Andrew Robertson

IRI, USA

Dr Francisco Doblas-Reyes

BSC, Spain

Dr Kunio Yoneyama

JAMSTEC, Japan

Mr Thierry Lefort

MeteoFrance France

Prof Alice Grimm

UFPR, Brazil

Dr Arun Kumar

NCEP, USA

Dr RupaKumar Kolli

IITM Pune, India

Dr G Srinivasan

RIMES, Bangkok

Dr Ashis Mitra

NCMRWF, India

Dr R Krishnan

IITM Pune, India

Dr. A. K. Sahai

IITM, Pune, India

Dr. Suryachandra A. Rao

IITM, Pune, India

Dr P Mukhopadhyay

IITM, Pune, India

Prof Vincent Moron

Aix Marsille University, France

Prof Raghu Murtugudde

University of Maryland, USA

Dr Thea Turkington

CCRS, Singapore

Dr Ajaya Mohan

NYU, Abu Dhabi

Dr DS Pai

IMD, Pune, India

Dr Gill Martin

UK Met Office, UK

Dr Giriraj Amarnath

IWMI, Srilanka

Dr. Balakrishnan Nair TM

INCOIS, India

Dr Kieran Hunt

University of Reading, UK

Dr Vinu Valsala

IITM Pune, India

Chairs

Session 1

Prof UC Mohanty

IIT Bhubaneswar, India

Dr KJ Ramesh

Former DGM, IMD, India

Session 2

Dr LS Rathore

Former DGM IMD, India

Prof Ashok Karumuri

Univ of Hyderabad, India

Session 3

AVM (retd) Prof Ajit Tyagi

Former DGM, IMD, India

Prof Subimal Ghosh

IIT Bombay, India

Session 4

Dr Akhilesh Gupta

SPLICE, DST, India

Dr EN Rajagopal

Former Director, NCMRWF, India

Session 5

Prof RK Mall

Banaras Hindu University, India

Prof Vimal Mishra

IIT Gandhinagar, India

Expected Outcomes

  • New insights for future societal application of extended range forecast.
  • Expert opinion on the development of new models including AI/ML based models
  • New dimensions of monsoon forecasting.
  • New insights on regional downscaling.
  • Quantitative discussion on Monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations in a changing climate.
  • Several initiatives will emerge from the conference, including the operationalization of suitable strategies in S2S forecasting over Indian region in different sectors.
  • Learning and knowledge exchange among Conference participants through interdisciplinary discussions on different documented case studies.
  • Publication of the proceedings of the forum /Publication of a conference report.

Team

Patrons

Dr. M. Rajeevan

Secretary, MoES

Dr. M. Mohapatra

DGM, IMD Delhi

Dr Estelle De Coning

WMO, Geneva
Scientific advisory committee

Prof. Ravi S. Nanjundiah

Director IITM, Chairman

Dr. Suryachandra A. Rao

Scientist G, Member

Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai

Scientist G, Member

Dr.(Smt.) Susmitha Joseph

Scientist E, Member Secretary
Local Organising committee

Dr.(Smt.) Susmitha Joseph

Scientist E

Dr. Rajib Chattopadhyay

Scientist E

Shri. S. M. D. Jeelani

Scientist E

Dr. R. Phani Murli Krishna

Scientist E

Shri Raju Mandal

Scientist C

Shri Avijit Dey

Scientist C

Mrs. Shanthi Iyer

Coordinator

Mr. R. D. Nair

Coordinator

Mr. Anil Pandey

Web developer

Miss Manpreet Kaur

Senior Research Fellow

Shri Mahesh Kalshetti

Senior Research Fellow

Miss Pratibha Gautham

Junior Research Fellow

Contact

Contact Us

Location:

Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune - 411008

Call:

+91-20-2590-4521