Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai

Designation

: Retired Scientist

Phone

:

Fax

:

Email ID

: sahai[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Academic Records

Degree	University	Year	Stream
Advanced Meteorological Training	India Meteorology Department	1997	Meteorology
D.Phil	Allahabad University	1992	Fluid Dynamics
M.Sc.	Allahabad University	1985	Mathematics

Research

Modelling ground water flow

Monsoon prediction and variability studies

Analysis of fluid flow instabilities

Use of Artificial Neural Networks for prediction and data analysis

Climate change studies using climate models and observations

Ocean and atmosphere coupled modelling

Awards & Honors

Award Name	Awarded By	Awarded For	Year
3rd IITM Golden Jubilee Biennial Award	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology	Outstanding Research Contributions	2016
21st Silver Jubilee Award	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune	Best Research paper	2008
Certificate of Merit Award	Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India	Outstanding contribution in the field of Atmospheric Science and Technology	2008
3rd Brazallian Symposium	Brazillian Congress of Meteorology	Best Research paper	2004
16th Silver Jubilee Award	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune	Best Research paper	2003
IMS Prize	Indian Mathematical Society	Best Research paper	1995

Scientific Careers

Year	Designation	Institute
2015-Present	Scientist G	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2017 (Jan)-2018 (Nov)	Head, Office of Climate Research and Services	India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune
2010-2015	Scientist F	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2005-2010	Scientist E	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2001-2005	Scientist D	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
1996-2001	Senior Scientific Officer Gr.I	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
1991-1996	Lecturer	Allahabad Degree College, Allahabad University

Research Highlight

Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has complex spatial structure due to the co-existence of equatorial eastward and off-equatorial northward propagation in the equatorial Indian Ocean. As a result, equatorial Indian Ocean convection has simultaneous northward and eastward (NE), northward only (N-only) and eastward only (E-only) propagations.

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Honors

Elected as Vice President of the National Council of the India Meteorological Society for the term 2018-2020.
Core Member, WMO Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to Long Time-Scales (IPET-OPSLS)
Vice-President of Indian Meteorological Society in 2018
Core Member, WMO Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to Long Time-Scales (IPET-OPSLS) in 2017
Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to Long Time-Scales (IPET-OPSLS)
Honored with a responsibility of additional charge of full functional Head of the Office of Climate Research and Services (CRS), India Meteorological Department, Pune since January 2017
Nominated as member of CCl TASK TEAM ON CLIPS EVOLUTION of World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Genewa in 2010
Korean Brain Pool Visiting Scientist Fellowship supported by Korea Research Foundation (KRF) and Korean Federation of Science and Technology Societies (KOSFT) to work on Non Linear Multi model Interpolation of APCC model forecast for the South Asian Summer monsoon using the Self Organizing Map and ANN techniques at Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), Korea. (From 16-12-2008 to 16-3-2009).
Visiting scientist to Florida State University to discuss implementation of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere system for Extended Range prediction of monsoon (From 18-8-2008 to 13-9-2008).
Visiting Scientist Fellowship by Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), Korea to visit APCC and contribute towards multi model multi ensemble seasonal forecast methodologies (From 1-7-2006 to 31-8-2006). Developed a standardized verification system (SVS) for long range forecasts (LRF) software for APCC, Korea.
Associate Editor of Journal of Earth System Science in 2014
Visiting Scientist Fellowship by CNPq, Brazil to work on the project Variability and predictability of seasonal rainfall over India and Brazil at the Department of Physics, Federal University of Parana, Brazil, February 2001- January 2003.
Bestowed with the title of Adjunct Professor of the Department of Physics, University of Pune, Pune for the academic year 1999-2000 and 2000-2001.
The National Academy of Sciences, India has honored for writing a review article published in the Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, India in 1999.

Projects/Programmes Handled:

Title of the Project/ programme	Funding Agency & Period	Scientific contributions
High Performance Computing (infrastructure development)	MoES, Govt. of India (2008-2011)	Programme Manager Contributed in the Formulation of the programme, contributing in the Implementation of the programme and responsible for Evaluation after completion of the programme
Role of Oceans in modulating South American and Indian Monsoon variability and predictability	CNPq, Brazil and DST, Govt. of India (2008-10)	Principal Investigator Contributed in the Formulation of the project, contributing in the Implementation of the project and responsible for Evaluation after completion of the project
Multiscale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon	Indo-French Centre for the Promotion of Advance Research, New Delhi (2008-11)	Principal Investigator Contributed in the Formulation of the project, contributing in the Implementation of the project and responsible for Evaluation after completion of the project
Seasonal Prediction of Indian Monsoon (SPIM)	DST, Govt. of India (2005-2007)	Contributed in the Implementation of the project
Air-Sea interactions in the Indian Ocean	DOD, Govt. of India (2002-2007)	Co-Principal Investigator Contributed in the Implementation of the project

Professional Training:

Advanced Meteorological Training, India Meteorology Department, 1997, one year duration.

37^th Orientation Program for College and University Teachers, held at the University of Allahabad from February 29, 1996 to March.21, 1996.

2^nd SERC SCHOOL on 'Advanced Geophysical Fluid Dynamics' held at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune from May 23,1995 to June 24, 1995.

23^rd Orientation Program for College and University Teachers, held at the University of Allahabad from March 30, 1995 to April 23, 1995.

3^rd Refresher Program in Mathematics for College and University Teachers held at the University of Allahabad from December 20, 1994 to January 13,1995.

I^stSERC SCHOOL on 'Basic of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics' held at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune from May 23, 1994 to June 25, 1994

Membership in Professional Organizations:

Indian Meteorological Society.
National Academy of Sciences, India.

Papers Published in Peer reviewed Journals

120. Baburaj P.P., Abhilash S., Vijaykumar P., Abhiram Nirmal C.S., Mohankumar K., Sahai A.K., Concurrent cyclogenesis in the Northern Indian Ocean and Monsoon Onset over Kerala in response to different MJO phases, Atmospheric Research, 280: 106435, December 2022, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106435, 1-16

119. Sharma S., Gupta M., Sahai A.K., Assessing implications of irrigation scheme in NASA-Land Information System Framework on land surface fluxes in Punjab, India, Geocarto International, 37, December 2022, DOI:10.1080/10106049.2021.1970244, 6999-7020

118. Karmakar N., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Kaur M., Phani R., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Northward propagation of convection over the Indian region in multiphysics multimodel ensemble, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Online, November 2022, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4404, 1-16

117. Karmakar N., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Northward propagation of convection over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: a perspective from vorticity equation, Climate Dynamics, 59, November 2022, 10.1007/s00382-022-06248-7, 2751–2767

116. Roy A., Murtugudde R., Sahai A.K., Narvekar P., Shinde V., Ghosh S., Water Savings with Irrigation Water Management at Multi-week Lead Time Using Extended Range Predictions, Climate Services, 27: 100320, August 2022, DOI:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100320, 1-15

115. Baburaj P.P., Abhilash S., Abhiram Nirmal C.S., Sreenath A.V., Mohankumar K., Sahai A.K., Increasing incidence of Arabian Sea cyclones during the monsoon onset phase: Its impact on the robustness and advancement of Indian summer monsoon, Atmospheric Research, 267: 105915, April 2022, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105915, 1-13

114. Kaur M., Sahai A.K., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 58, February 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05926-2, 669–690

113. Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Kaur M. , Mandal R., Phani R., Sahai A.K., Pattanaik D.R. , The intraseasonal fluctuation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO)., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 148, April 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00704-022-03970-4, 819-831

112 Lekshmi S., Chattopadhyay R., Kaur M., Joseph S., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Sahai A.K., Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, October 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03818-3, 1-11

111 Akhter J., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Nageswararao M.M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w, 1-12

110 Pattanaik D.R., Mandal R., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Mohapatra M., Large-scale features associated with excess monsoon rainfall over india during 2019 and the real-time extended range forecast, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, June 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y, 1-23

109 Shroyer E., Tandon A., Sengupta D., Fernando H.J.S., Lucas A.J., Farrar T., Chattopadhyay R., …, Sahai A.K., … et al., Bay of Bengal Intraseasonal Oscillations and the 2018 Monsoon Onset, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Online, May 2021, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0113.1

108 Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Prediction of dominant daily modes of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP GFS model, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Online, April 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00793-2, 1-19

107 Vijayakumar P., Abhilash S., Sreenath A.V., Athira U.N., Mohankumar K., Mapes B.E., Chakrapani B., Sahai A.K., Niyas T.N., Sreejith O.P., Kerala floods in consecutive years - Its association with mesoscale cloudburst and structural changes in monsoon clouds over the west coast of India, Weather and Climate Extremes, 33: 100339, September 2021, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100339, 1-14

106 Srivastava P.K., Pradhan R.K., Petropoulos G.P., Pandey V., Gupta M., Yaduvanshi A., Jaafar W.Z.W., Mall R.K., Sahai A.K., Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Extreme Events over Kosi River Basin in India, Water, 13: 1695, June 2021, DOI:10.3390/w13121695, 1-13

105 Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Phani R., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Frontiers in Climate, 3: 655919, May 2021, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.655919, 1-11

104 Amat H.B., Pradhan M., Tejavath C.T., Dey Avijit, Rao Suryachandra A., Sahai A.K., Ashok K., Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif rice crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 144, May 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6, 917-929

103 Dutta S., Jagtap M., Balasubramaniam R., Kulkarni N., Danish M., Deshpande S., Satpute U., Sahai A.K., Wayal R., Bhagbat P., Nambier B., Kulkarni D., Bile L., Kamble P.V., AwateP., Ghosh K., Sawaisarje G.K., Khedikar S., Patil C., Alam O., A pilot study on assessing the effect of climate on the incidence of vector borne disease at Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad area, Maharashtra, Mausam, 72, April 2021, 399-414

102 Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Manpreet Kaur, Dey A., Mandal Raju., Phani R., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework, Mausam, 72, January 2021, 57-76

101. Mandke S.K., Pillai P.A., Sahai A.K., Simulation of monsoon intra‐seasonal oscillations in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory models from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project integrations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, International Journal of Climatology, 40, November 2020, DOI: 10.1002/joc.6536, 5574-5589

100. Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Muralikrishna R.P. , Mandal R., Dey A., Active-Break transitions of monsoons Over India as predicted by Coupled Model Ensembles, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177, September 2020, DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02503-2, 4391–4422

99. Raghav P., Borkotoky S.S., Joseph J., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Ghosh S., Revamping extended range forecast of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 55, September 2020, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05454-5, 3397–3411

98. Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Saha S., Awate P., Dutta S., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Pattanaik D.R., Despande S., Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters, Scientific Reports, 10:14741, September 2020, DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6, 1-13

97. Kalshetti M., Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Climatological patterns of subseasonal eddy flux transfer based on the co‐spectral analysis over the Indian region and the derivation of an index of eddy transfer for operational tracking, International Journal of Climatology, Online, August 2020, DOI:10.1002/joc.6821, 1-20

96. Kaur M., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Mandal M., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mukhopadhyay P., Abhilash S., Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones, Atmospheric Science Letters, 21: e971, August 2020, DOI:10.1002/asl.971, 1-11

95. Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., The relationship between the daily dominant monsoon modes of South Asia and SST, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142, June 2020, DOI:10.1007/s00704-020-03304-2, 59–70

94. Baburaj P.P., Abhilash S., Mohankumar K., Sahai A.K., On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 37, June 2020, DOI:10.1007/s00376-020-9070-5, 634–651

93. De S., Sahai A.K., Was the earliest documented account of tornado dynamics published by an Indian scientist in an Indian journal, Weather, 75, April 2020, DOI:10.1002/wea.3485, 120-123

92. Rao Suryachandra A., Goswami B.N., Sahai A.K., Rajagopal E.N., Mukhopadhyay P., Rajeevan M., Nayak S., Rathore L.S., Shenoi S.S.C., Ramesh K.J., Nanjundiah R.S., Ravichandran M., Mitra A.K., Pai D.S., Bhowmik S.K.R., Hazra A., Mahapatra S., Saha Subodh K., Chaudhari H.S., Joseph S., Sreenivas P., Pokhrel S., Pillai P.A., Chattopadhay R., Deshpande M., Krishna R.P.M., Siddharth Renu, Prasad V.S., A, Monsoon Mission : A targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, December 2019, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1, 2509-2532

91 Robertson A. W., Acharya N.,Goddard L., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Singh K.K., Ghosh K., Agarwal A., Buizer J.L.,, Subseasonal forecasts of the 2018 Indian summer monsoon over Bihar, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, November 2019, DOI:10.1029/2019JD031374, 13861-13875

90. Chattopadhyay N., Sahai A.K., Guhathakurta P., Dutta S., Srivastava A.K., Attri S.D., Balasubramanian R., Malathi K., Chandras S., Impact of observed climate change on the classification of agroclimatic zones in India, Current Science, 117, August 2019, DOI: 10.18520/cs/v117/i3/480-486, 480-486

89. Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Phani R., Abhilash S., Operational tracking method for the MJO using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, June 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8, 2697-2717

88. Mandal R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India, Scientific Reports, 9, June 2019, DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6, 1-11

87. De S., Sahai A.K., Was the earliest documented account of tornado dynamics published by an Indian scientist in an Indian journal, Weather, 10:1002, April 2019, DOI:10.1002/wea.3485, 1-4

86. Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Muralikrishna R.P., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Tiwari A.D., Mishra V., Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors, Mausam, 70, April 2019, 233-264

85. Chattopadhyay R., Thomas A., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Study on the capability of the NCEP-CFS model in simulating the frequency and intensity of high-intensity rainfall events over Indian region in the high and low resolutions, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5, March 2019, DOI:10.1007/s40808-018-0520-3, 85-100

84. De S., Agarwal N.K., Hazra A., Chaudhari H.S., Sahai A.K., On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science, Climate Dynamics, 52, March 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4211-6, 1547–1568

83. Abhilash S., Krishnakumar E. K., Vijaykumar P., Sahai A.K., B. Chakrapani B., Gopinath G., Changing characteristics of droughts over Kerala, India: Inter-annual variability and trend, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s13143-018-0060-9, 1-17

82. Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., enesis and track prediction of pre‑monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi‑model ensemble framework, Natural Hazards, 95, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6, 823-843

81. Ghosh S., Bhatla R., Mall R.K., Srivastava P.K., Sahai A. K., Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00704-018-2432-6, 1559-1581

80. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Phani M.K., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Skill evaluation of extended range forecast of rainfall and temperature over meteorological subdivisions of India, Weather and Forecasting, 34, February 2019, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055, 81-101

79. Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Ganesh S., Kaur M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Understanding the intraseasonal variability over Indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system, Mausam, 70, January 2019, 31-56

78. Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., De S., Agarwal N.K., Sahai A.K., Devi S.S., Rajeevan M., Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intraseasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, 51, November 2018, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, 3435–3446

77. Chattopadhyay N., Rao K.V., Sahai A.K., Balasubramanian R., Pai D.S., Pattanaik D.R., Chandras S.V., Khedikar S., Usability of extended range and seasonal weather forecast in Indian agriculture, Mausam, 69, January 2018, 29-44

76. Ganesh S.S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Dey A., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., New approach to improve the track prediction of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, April 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 1-9

75. Shahi N.K., Rai S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Intra-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2, International Journal of Climatology, 38 (Suppl.1), April 2018, DOI:10.1002/joc.5349, e28-e47

74. Shrivastava S., Kar S. C., Sahai A.K., Sharma A.R., Identification of drought occurrences using Ensemble predictions up to 20-Days in advance, Water Resources Management, 32, April 2018, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9, 2113-2130

73. Joseph J., Ghosh S., Pathaka A., Sahai A.K., Hydrologic impacts of climate change: Comparisons between hydrological parameter uncertainty and climate model uncertainty, Journal of Hydrology, 566, November 2018, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.080, 1-22

72. Saranya G., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., New approach to improve the track prediction of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, August 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 7781-7789.

71. Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S. , Bias‑correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, 48, April 2017, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3214-4, 2437-2451.

70. Shrivastava S., Kar S. C., Sahai A. K., Sharma A.R. , Identification of drought occurrences using Ensemble predictions up to 20-Days in advance, Water Resources Management, 32, April 2018, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9, 2113-2130.

69. Chattopadhyay N., Rao K.V., Sahai A.K., Balasubramanian R., Pai D.S., Pattanaik D.R., Chandras S.V., Khedikar S., Usability of extended range and seasonal weather forecast in Indian agriculture, Mausam, 69, January 2018, 29-44

68. Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., De S., Agarwal N.K., Sahai A.K., Devi S.S., Rajeevan M. , Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intraseasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, online, January 2018, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, 1-12.

67. Ghosh S., Bhatla R., Mall R. K., Srivastava P . K. and Sahai A. K., Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2432-6 .

66. Sahai S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S. , Bias‑correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, 48, April 2017, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3214-4, 2437-2451.

65. Ashok K., Shamal M., Sahai A. K., Swapna P , Nonlinearities in the evolutional distinctions between El Niño and La Niña types, Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, November 2017, DOI:10.1002/2017JC013129, 1-15.

64. Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., Pai D.S., Srivastava A.K. , Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction, Natural Hazards, 88, September 2017, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2, 853-865.

62. Sahai, A.K., S. Sharmila, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, S. Joseph, N. Borah, B. N. Goswami, D. S. Pai and A. K. Srivastava, 2017, “Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: Optimism for dynamical extended range prediction” , Natural Hazards, DOI : 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2, May 2017

61. Shah Reepal, Sahai A K, Mishra Vimal, Short-to-medium range hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 February 2017, DOI:10-5194/hess-2016-504, 707-720

60. Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Bias-correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, online, June 2016, DOI:10.1007/s00382- 016-3214-4, 1-15. . ISSN 1432-0894.

58. Sahi N. K., Rai S., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S. , Intraseasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon and its relationship with the Indo–Pacific sea surface temperature in the NCEP CFSv2, International Journal of Climatology, DOI:10.1002/joc.5349.

57. Pillai P.A., Sahai A.K., Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation, Climate Dynamics, 47, August 2016, 1335– 1350. ISSN 0930-7575.

56. Mandke S.K., Sahai A.K., Twin tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: the role of equatorial waves, Natural Hazards, 84, December 2016, DOI:10.1007/s11069- 016-2546-z, 2211-2224. ISSN 0921-030X.

55. Joseph S., Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Rajeevan M., Mandal R., Dey A., Borah N., Phani R., Extremes in June rainfall during Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational Analysis and Extended range prediction, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 142, April 2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730, 1276- 1289. ISSN 0035-9009.

54. Agarwal N.K., Naik S.S., De S., Sahai A.K., Why are the Indian monsoon transients short-lived and less intensified during droughts vis-à-vis good monsoon years? An inspection through scale interactive energy exchanges in frequency domain, International Journal of Climatology, 36, June 2016, DOI:10.1002/joc.4531, 2958-2978. ISSN 0899-8418.

53. Sharmila S., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models, Global and Planetary Change, 124, January 2015, DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004, 62–78. ISSN 0921-8181.

52. Sharmila S., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N., Asymmetry in space-time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years: Role of seasonal mean states, International Journal of Climatology, 35, June 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4100, 1948-1963. ISSN 0899-8418.

51. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey A., Abhilash A., Krishna R.P.M., Borah N., Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2, Current Science, 109, November 2015, 1802-1813. ISSN 0011- 3891.

50. Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Joseph S., Sharmila S, Rajeevan M., High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 44, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9, 3129-3140. . ISSN 0930-7575.

49. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Pillai P.A., Rajeevan M., Arun Kumar, North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction, Climate Dynamics, 44, May 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5, 2049-2065 . ISSN 0930-7575.

48. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Mapes B.E., Rajeevan M., Kumar A., Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the Real-Time prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset in a coupled model framework, Journal of Climate, 28, August 2015, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14- 00842.1, 6234-6248. ISSN 0894-8755.

47. Borah N., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. , Joseph S., Sharmila S., Kumar A., Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, 35, October 2015, I:10.1002/joc.4178, 2860-2876. ISSN 0899-8418.

46. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Improved Spread–Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578. ISSN 1558-8424.

45. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Joseph S., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A., Better spread-error relationship in a multimodel ensemble prediction system, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, August 2015, 1228-1229. ISSN 0273-0979.

44. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Goswami B.N., New method to compute the principal components from self-organizing maps: an application to monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, International Journal of Climatology, 34, July 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3885, 2925–2939. 0899-8418.

43. Pillai P.A., Sahai A.K., Moist dynamics of active/break cycle of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from NCEPR2 and MERRA reanalysis, International Journal of Climatology, 34, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3774, 1429–1444. ISSN 0899-8418.

42. Mandke S.K., Sahai A.K., Shinde M., Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon using AGCM: Weighted Ensemble Mean Approach, Earth Science India, 7, July 2014, 67-72

41. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, May 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9, 2801- 2815. ISSN 0930-7575.

40. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N, Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall?, Atmospheric Science Letters, 15, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/asl2.477, 114–119. ISN 1530-261X

39. Abhilash S., Sahai A. K., Pattnaik S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar, Extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using an ensemble prediction system in NCEP Climate Forecast System, International Journal of Climatology, 34, January 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3668, 98-11. ISN 0899-8418.

38. Sharmila Sur, Pillai P.A., Joseph S., Roxy M., Krishna R.P.M., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N., Role of ocean-atmosphere interaction on northward propagation of Indian summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO), Climate Dynamics, 41, September 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1854- 1, 1651–1669. . ISSN 0930-7575.

37. Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph Susmitha, Roxy M., De S., Pattnaik S., Pillai P.A., Simulation and Extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework, Current Science, 104, May 2013, 1394-1408. ISSN 0011-3891.

36. Pattnaik S., Abhilash S., De S., Sahai A.K., Phani R., Goswami B.N., Influence of convective parameterization on the systematic errors of Climate Forecast System (CFS) model over the Indian monsoon region from an extended range forecast perspective, Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1662-7, 341–365. ISSN 0930-7575.

35. De S., Sahai A.K., Predictability of Indian monsoon circulation with high resolution ECMWF model in the perspective of tropical forecast during the tropical convection year 2008, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 170, December 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00024-013-0642-5, 2351–2368. ISSN 0033-4553.

34. Chattopadhyay R., Sur S., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Diabatic heating profiles over the continental convergence zone during the monsoon active spells, Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1739-3, 205-226. ISSN 0930- 7575.

33. Borah N., Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Abhilash S., Goswami B.N., Self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon, Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, August 2013, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50688, 1-13. ISSN 0148-0227.

32. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Pattnaik S., De S., Predictability during active break phases of Indian summer monsoon in an ensemble prediction system using climate forecast system, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 100-101, August 2013, DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.03.017, 13-23. ISSN 0021-9169.

31. Terray P., Kamala K., Masson S., Madec G., Sahai A.K., Luo J-J, Role of the intra- daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model, Climate Dynamics, 39, August 2012, DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1240-9, 729-754. ISSN 0930-7575.

30. Manoj M.G., Devara P.C.S., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Aerosol indirect effect during the aberrant Indian summer monsoon breaks of 2009, Atmospheric Environment, 60, December 2012, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.007, 153- 163. ISSN 1352-2310.

29. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N., Terray P., Masson S., Luo J.-J., Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model, Climate Dynamics, 38, April 2012, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011- 1264-1, 1561-1576. ISSN 0930-7575.

28. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Mohankumar K., George J.P., Das S., Assimilation of doppler weather radar radial velocity and reflectivity observations in WRF- 3DVAR system for short-range forecasting of convective storms, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169, December 2012, DOI:10.1007/s00024-012-0462-z, 2047-2070. ISSN 0033-4553.

27. Pradhan P.K., Preethi B., Ashok K., Krishnan R., Sahai A.K., Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole, and western North Pacific typhoons: Possible implications for extreme events, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, September 2011, doi:10.1029/2011JD015666, D18108, 1-12. ISSN 0148-0227.

26. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Goswami B.N., Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon?, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, October 2011, doi:10.1029/2010JD015510, D20123, 1-12. ISSN 0148-0227.

25. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A. K. and Goswami, B. N. (2010) Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models, Clim. Dyn., 35, 651-667. ISSN 0930-7575.

24. R. Chattopadhyay, Goswami B.N., Sahai A. K. and Fraedrich K. (2009 )The Role of Stratiform Rainfall in modifying the northward propagation of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation, J. Geo. Res. (Atmos.), 114, D19114, DOI 10.1029/2009JD011869, 1-15. ISSN 0148–0227.

23. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A. K. and Goswami, B. N. (2009) Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts, Clim. Dyn., 32, 1139- 1153. ISSN 0930-7575.

22. Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R. and Goswami B. N. (2008) A SST based large multi-model ensemble forecasting system for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Geo. Res. Let., 35, L19705,1-9, DOI 10.1029/2008/GL035461. ISSN 0094-8276.

21. Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A. K. and Goswami B. N. (2008) Objective Identification of Nonlinear Convectively Coupled Phases of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation: Implications for Prediction, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1549- 1569. ISSN 1520-0469.

20. Suresh Babu D. S., Sahai A. K., Mauricio A. N. and E. Marone (2008) Hydraulic response of a tidally forced coastal creek, Pontal do Parana, Brazil, Hydrogeology Journal, DOI 10.1007/s10040-008-0334-x. ISSN 1431-2174.

19. Pankaj Kumar, K. Rupa Kumar, M. Rajeevan and Sahai A. K. (2007), On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over south Asia, Clim. Dyn., 28, 649-660. ISSN 0930-7575.

18. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A., Joseph S. and Chattopadhyay R. (2007) Simulated changes in active/break spells during Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: Assessment from selected Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean global climate model, International Journal of Climatology, 27, June 2007, 837-859, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1440. ISSN 0899-8418. www.interscience.wiley.com

17. Grimm A. M., Sahai A. K. and C. F. Ropelewski (2006), Interdecadal Variations in AGCM Simulation Skills, J. Clim., 19, 3406-3419. ISSN 0894-8755.

16. K. Rupa Kumar, Sahai A. K., K. Krishna Kumar,S. K. Patwardhan, P. K. Mishra, J. V. Revedekar, K. Kamla and G. B. Pant (2006), High-resolution climate change scenarios for India, Curr. Sci., 9(3), 334-345. ISSN 0011-3891.

15. Tripathi K. C., Das I. M. L. and Sahai A. K. (2006) Prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean using artificial neural network, Ind. J. Mar. Sci.,35(3), 210-220. ISSN 0379-5136.

14. Sahai, A. K., Patnaik, D. R., Satyan, V. And Grimm, A. M. (2003) Teleconnections in Recent Time and Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Met. Atmos. Phys., 84, 217-227. ISSN 0177-7971.

13. Sahai A. K., Grimm A. M., Satyan V. and Pant, G. B. (2003) Long- lead Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Global SST Evolution, Clim. Dyn., 20, 855-863. ISSN 0930-7575.

12. Sahai A. K. (2001) Some aspects of mathematical modelling of Himalayan and Trans- Himalayan glaciers and Indian summer monsoon, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., India, Vol. 71(A), SPL. ISSUE, 237-242. ISSN 0369-8203.

11. Sahai A. K., Soman, M. K. and Satyan, V. (2000) All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network, Clim. Dyn., 16, 291- 302. ISSN 0930-7575.

10. Sahai A. K. (1999) A brief review of Climate Change: Causes, Observations and Modelling Studies, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. India (Section A - Physical Sciences), 69(A), I, 1-17. ISSN 0369-8203.

9. Sahai A.K. (1998) Climate Change: A Case Study over India, Theo. Appl. Climatol. 61, 9-18. ISSN 0177-798X.

8. Sahai A. K. (1998) Thermosolutal convection in the presence of both vertical and horizontal temperature gradients, ASME J. Appl. Mech., Vol. 66, 181-196. ISSN 0021-8936.

7. Srivastava, Atul Kumar, Sahai A. K. and Khare, H. C. (1998) Effect of vertical magnetic field on Rayilegh- Taylor instability in porous medium, J. Ind. Math. Soc., Vol. 65, 133- 143. ISSN 0019-5839.

6. Sahai A. K. (1997) Instability of two superposed self-gravitating viscous streams, Arabian J. for Sc. and Eng. Vol. 22(2A), 213-221. ISSN 0377-9211.

5. Khare H.C. and Sahai A. K. (1995) Thermosolutal convection in a rotating heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sc. India Vol. 65(A), I, 49-62. ISSN 0369-8203.

4. Khare H.C. and Sahai A.K. (1994) Thermosolutal convection in a rotating heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium in the presence of magnetic field, J. Ind. Math. Soc. Vol. 60, 247-265. ISSN 0019-5839.

3. Khare H. C. and Sahai A. K. (1993) Thermosolutal convection in a heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium in the presence of magnetic field, Int. J. of Eng. Sc. Vol. 31 No. 11, 1507-1517. ISSN 0020-7225.

2. Khare H.C., Singh R.P., Sahai A. K. and Singh P.K. (1992) Thermosolutal Instability of a non-homogeneous fluid layer, Ganita, Vol. 43, 147-169. ISSN 0046-5402.

1. Khare H.C and Sahai A.K. (1992) Thermosolutal convection in a heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sc. India, Vol. 63(A), IV, 673-688. ISSN 0369-8203.

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Papers Published in Proceedings/Books/Reports etc.

21. Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Phani R., Joseph S., Mandal R., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R.,Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction System for the Indian Summer monsoon, S2S Newsletter No. 16, March 2021, 8-10 http://s2sprediction.net/file/newsletter/Newsletter%2016_Mar%202021.pdf

20. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Extended Range Forecast, Geography and You, March 2019, 19(18), 16-21

19. Sahai A. K. (2009) Challenges in Real Time Seasonal prediction: a Plea for Enhanced Scientific Rigor, APCC News Letter, Vol.4, No.1, 3-6.

18. Sahai, A. K., Mandke, S. K., Shinde, M. A., Chattopadhyay, R., Joseph S. and Goswami, B. N. (2007) Experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon 2007: statistical and dynamical models, IITM Research Report, No. RR- 120. ISSN 0252-1075.

17. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A., Joseph S. and Chattopadhyay R. (2006) Coupled multi-model response of active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon to enhanced CO2 effect, IITM Research Report, No. RR- 112. ISSN 0252-1075.

16. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A. and Joseph S. (2006) Global warming and mean Indian summer monsoon, Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) report, March 2006, pp.

15. Sahai, A. K. and R. Chattopadhyay (2006) An objective study of Indian summer monsoon variability using the self organizing map algorithms, IITM Research Report, No. RR- 113. ISSN 0252-1075.

14. Grimm A. M., Sahai A. K. and C. F. Ropelewski (2006), Variations in Global Climate model performance for different regions, seasons, variables and climate regimes, Geoph. Res. Abs., vol. 8, 10051, SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06-A-10051, European Geosciences Union.

13. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K. and Shinde M. A. (2005) Dynamical ensemble seasonal forecast experiments of recent Indian summer monsoons: an assessment using new approach. IITM Research Report, No. RR-107. ISSN 0252-1075.

12. Mujumdar M., Krishnan R., Sahai A. K., Mandke S. K., Kulkarni J. R., Shinde M., Vinay Kumar, Kripalani R. H. and Sabade S. S. (2005) Monsoon 2004 - performance of LRF: global modelling aspects. Leeward News, Vol.IX(No.4), Spl. Issue, pp. 5-7.

11.Sahai, A. K., Sujata K. Mandke, R. Krishnan, Vinay Kumar, M. Mujumdar, J. R. Kulkarni and S. P. Gharge (2004), Statistical and Dynamical Prediction of Summer Monsoon 2003, Leeward News, Vol VII(No.4), pp.15-21

10. Sahai A. K., RupaKumar K., Mishra P. K., Patwardhan S. K. (2004) South Asian climate change scenario. Proceedings of the workshop on Adaptation to climate change in mountain ecosystems: bridging research and policy, 3-4 March, 2004, Kathmandu, Nepal, pp2.1-2.29.

9. Sahai, A. K., Grimm, A. M., Satyan, V. and Pant, G. B. (2002) Prospects of prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global SST anomalies, IITM Research Report, No. RR-093. ISSN 0252-1075.

8. D.S. Suresh Babu, M. Noenberg, A. K. Sahai and E. Marone (2002) Hydraulic response of a coastal aquifer holding tidal creek from Pontal do Parana, Brazil. Project Report, UFPR, Curitiba, Brazil, August 2002.

7. V. Satyan, M. K. Soman, R. Krishnan, J. R. Kulkarni, Sahai A. K., S. K. Mandke, K. Ashok, M. Mujumdar and D. R. Pattanaik (2002) Climate predictability and variability studies using atmospheric general circulation models, research highlights in earth science system, Indian Geological Congress (special vol.1), pp.311-324.

6. Grimm, A. M., Sahai, A. K., Ferraz, S. E. T. and Soares A. P. (2001) Rainfall forecast in a region of the Sao Francisco basin using neural network. Proceedings of the fourth Inter-American Dialogue on Water Management. Ministério do Meio Ambiente, 2001. v. in CD.

5. Krishnan, R., Satyan, V., Mujumdar, M., Mandke, S. K., Kulkarni, J. R., Sahai, A. K., Gharge, S. P., Vaidya, V., Ramesh K. V. and Vinay Kumar (2001) Ensemble GCM simulations of the Indian summer monsoon, Report No. 31, WMO/TD No. 1064, 2001, pp. 6.5-6.6.

4. Satyan, V., Keshavamurty, R. N., Soman, M. K., Krishnan, R., Kulkarni, J. R., Ashok, K., Mandke, S. K., Mujumdar, M., Pattanaik, D. R., Venkatesan, C., Gharge, S. P. and Sahai, A. K. (2000) Monsoon Predictability and variability studies using atmospheric general circulation models, SERC Research Highlights 2000, DST Publication 2000, pp 96-104. 212-215.

3. Sahai, A. K. and Satyan, V. (2000) Reduction of AGCM systematic error by artificial neural network: A new approach for dynamical seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, IITM Research Report, No. RR088 ISSN 0252-1075.

2. Satyan, V., Krishnan, R., Soman, M. K., Kulkarni, J. R., Sahai, A. K., Ashok, K., Mandke ,S. K. and Mujumdar, M. (2000) Simulation of surface wind stress on monthly and seasonal time scales to provide forcings for driving an ocean general circulation model, Report No. 30, WMO/TD No. 987, 2000, pp 8.15.

1. Sahai, A. K., Mujumdar, M., Soman, M. K. and Satyan, V. (2000) Prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall using Neural Network, in Proceedings of TROPMET-2000, pp 212-215.

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IITM Research reports

5. Chattopadhyay R., Krishna R. P. M., Joseph S., Dey A., Mandal R. and Sahai A. K., A Comparison of Extended - Range Prediction of Monsoon in the IITM - CFSv2 with ECMWF S2S Forecast System, IITM Research Report, RR-139, January 2017, ESSO/IITM/SERP/ SR/01 (2018)/190.

4. Susmitha Joseph, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, R . Phani, A . Dey and R. Chattopadhyay, Diagnostics and Real - Time Extended Range Prediction of Heat Waves over India, IITM Research Report, RR - 141 ESSO / IITM / SERP / SR / 03 ( 2018 )/ 192.

3. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, R. Mandal, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay, Evaluation of Extended Range Forecast Skill on Subdivisional scale over India, IITM Research Report No. RR- 137, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2017)/188, published May 2017

2. D.R. Pattanaik, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey, R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Shibin Balakrishnan and A. K. Sahai, Performance of real time extended range forecast during southwest monsoon 2016, IMD Met Monograph: No.: ESSO/ IMD/ Synoptic Met./ 01(2017)/21

1. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay, Rajib, Dey Avijit, Joseph Susmitha, Abhilash S., Phani M., Mandal Raju, Rajeevan M.N. and Hendon H., MJO Diagnostics for Extended Range Prediction and Simulation in IITM CFSv2”, IITM Research Report, RR-136, September 2016

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Papers Presented in Seminar/Symposia

67. Sahai, A. K., Prediction of active and break phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation, Brainstorming Workshop-SW monsoon 2010 performance review, 9-10 Dec, 2010, IMD, New Delhi

66. Sahai, A. K., Silver Jubilee Award lecture 2008, IITM Foundation Day Celeberation on 17^th November 2010 at IITM

65. Sahai, A. K., Extended range monsoon prediction using Atmospheric GCMs, Asia Pacific Network South Asia -SRC, PDWT and Downscaling Workshop: IITM, Pune, November 03-05, 2010

64. Sahai, A. K., Prediction of monsoon 2010: seasonal forecasting of Indian summer monsoon using empirical models, SASCOF meeting 13-15 April, 2010

63. Sahai, A. K., Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Using Empirical/Dynamical Models, Annual workshop on Monsoon 2009, Indian Meteorological Society (Pune Chapter), Pune, 16^th December, 2009

62. Sahai, A. K., Challenges in real-time prediction of seasonaol anomalies, Seminar at APCC, Busan, Korea on 13^th March, 2009

61. Sahai, A. K., Problems and prospects in predicting inter-annual and intra-seasonal variabilities, Seminar at KMA, Seol, Korea on 4^th March, 2009

60. Sahai, A. K., A new approach for objective Identification of Nonlinear Convectively Coupled Phases of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation: implications for Prediction, Seminar at APCC, Busan, Korea on 24^th February, 2009

59. Sahai, A. K., A new approach to predict inter-annual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Seminar at APCC, Busan, Korea on 6^th Jan, 2009

58. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami, Eastward propagating MJO and Indian summer monsoon droughts, Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans at The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy. (For Poster Presentation) during 17-20^th November 2008

57. Sahai, A. K., A SST based large multi-model ensemble forecasting system for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Seminar at the Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, USA 30^th August, 2008

56. Sahai, A. K., Objective Classification of Rainfall Patterns: A non-linear approach and Extended range prediction of monsoon, Seminar at the Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, USA, 30^th Ausust, 2008

55. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami, Eastward Propogating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts.Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Cairns, Australia, 29 July to 1^st Aug. 2008

54. Sahai, A. K., S. K. Mandke, M. Shinde, R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, B. N. Goswami,S. M. Bawiskar, S. S. Dugam and A. A. Munot Seasonal Forecast of ISMR 2007, MoES Brainstorming meeting for ‘Improved Weather Forecasting’, held during 26-28 February, 2008 at Meeting Hall, First Floor, WWF-India, 172-B, Lodi Estate, New Delhi

53. Sahai, A. K., S. K. Mandke, M. Shinde, R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, B. N. Goswami,S. M. Bawiskar, S. S. Dugam and A. A. Munot, Statistical and Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of ISMR 2007, 2nd annual workshop on “Model performances for 2007 weather system” held at NCMRWF, New Delhi during 31 Jan-01 Feb 2008

52. Sahai, A. K., Sujata Mandke, Mahesh Shinde, R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph and B. N. Goswami, Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Indian Summer Monsoon 2007: Statistical and Dynamical Models., Annual workshop on Monsoon 2007, Indian Meteorological Society (Pune Chapter), Pune, 3rd December, 2007

51. R. Chattopadyay, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami., The prediction of intra-seasonal oscillation: A clue to have pre-information of extreme rainfall events., UK India Extreme Weather Events Conference, New Delhi, 26 -29 November 2007

50. Sahai, A. K., Global Warming.Presented (by Dr. Suresh Tiwari) at 16th All India Scientific Hindi Workshop at New Delhi on 12th Nov. 2007

49. Mahesh Shinde, A. K. Sahai and S. K. Mandke, Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall : Need of Coupled Model?, International Conference on Asian Monsoon Variability during the past Global Changes, Nainital, India held during 11-14 Sept. 2007

48. R. Chattopadyay, Sahai, A. K. and B. N. Goswami, A link between large scale dynamical Indian and the event to event variability of Active Break Phases of Indian monsoon. International Monsoon Conference, 24-28 July 2007 at IISc, Banglore

47. Sahai, A. K., R.Chattopadhyay and B.N. Goswami, A non-linear analog technique of forecasting monsoon rainfall in the extended range using the large, scale dynamical information and spatial distribution of rainfall, International Monsoon Conference, 24-28 July 2007 at IISc, Banglore

46. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami, Eastward propagating MJO during boreal Summer and Indian monsoon droughts, International Monsoon Conference, 24-28 July 2007 at IISc, Banglore

45. Sahai, A. K., Prediction of Monsoon – 2007 : Seasonal Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon using Imperical/Dynamical approaches, Meeting on Long Range Forecasting, 13^th April 2007, held at IMD, New Delhi

44. A.K.Sahai Climate System Modelling at IITM: HPC needs and issues of number crunching. (Invited talk), International High Performance Computing (HPC) Users
Conference, held at IIT, Delhi, during 28 Feb- 1 March 2007

43. Sahai, A. K., Seasonal prediction of monsoon 2006 - dynamical and statistical approach, Brain storming meeting for improved weather forecasting during 6-8 Feb.2007, at New Delhi

42. Sahai, A. K., Statistical and Dynamical Prediction of Monsoon 2006., Meeting on “Model performances during monsoon 2006 period”, NCMRWF, New Delhi, 19 Dec. 2006

41. R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami, Understanding the Multiple Degeneracy of the Spatial Pattern of Active and Break Phases of Monsoon (Poster Presentation), TROPMET-2006 held at IITM during 21-23 November 2006

40. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami, Relation between MJO and long breaks. TROPMET-2006 held at IITM during 21-23 November 2006

39. Mandke Sujata K., Sahai, A. K., M.A. Shinde, Susmitha Joseph and R. Chattopadhay, Simulated changes in active/break spells during Indian Summer Monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations : Assessment from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (Poster presentation), Tropmet-2006, a national symposium on ‘Role of meteorology in national development’, held during 21-23 November, 2006 at IITM, Pune

38. Sahai, A. K., Long range forecasting 2006, India Meteorological Department, Dept of Science and Technology, New Delhi, 22 April 2006

37. Sahai, A. K., Seasonal Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Using Empirical/ Dynamical Approaches, India Meteorological Department, Dept of Science and Technology, New Delhi, 23 March 2006

36. R. Krishnan, J.R. Kulkarni, Sahai, A. K., Sujata Mandke, Milind Mujumdar., Coupled air-sea interactions in the tropical Indian Ocean and monsoon environment, International Geosphere Biosphere Workshop on Global Change, 3 March 2006, IITM,Pune, India

35. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai and S.K. Mandke, Study of Indian summer monsoon long break spells National Conference on Atmosphere Ocean Interaction and monsoon variability, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, 11-13 January, 2006

34. Sahai, A. K. and R. Chattopadhyay, The study of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability and objective classification of rainfall patterns using self organizing maps, ERCA-2006, Grenoble, France, (9th Jan to 11th Feb, 2006)

33. R. Chattopadhyay and Sahai, A. K., ISO variability study and the objective classification of rainfall patterns; a non linear approach, IITM seminar, 20th December, 2005

32. Sahai, A. K., S. K. Mandke, Mahesh Shinde, R. Krishnan, M. Mujumdar, Vinay Kumar, J.R. Kulkarni and S.P. Gharge, Dynamical and statistical prediction experiments: Monsoon 2005, Annual workshop, “Monsoon 2005” organised by Indian Meteorological society, Pune chapter on 23rd December 2005 at central training institute, Pashan

31. Sahai, A. K., Silver Jubilee Award lecture- 2003, IITM Foundation Day Celeberation on 17^th November 2005 at IITM

30. Sushmita Joseph, Sujata K. Mandke and A. K. Sahai, Study and classification of Indian summer monsoon break spells based on OLR, First Prof.Ananthakrishnan Memorial Conference, held at IITM, Pune during 18-19 Jan. 2005

29. R. Chattopadhyay and Sahai, A. K., Wavelet Analysis of Tropical convection over space and time, First Prof.Ananthakrishnan Memorial Conference, held at IITM, Pune during 18-19 Jan. 2005

28. Sahai, A. K., S. K. Mandke and M. A. Shinde, Assessment of ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction of recent monsoons by an AGCM, International Conference ‘MONEX and its legacy’ held at New Delhi during 3-7 Feb. 2005

27. R. Krishnan, M. Mujumdar, A. K. Sahai, S.K. Mandke, M. Shinde, J.R. Kulkarni, S.P. Gharge, Vinay Kumar, S.Suchitra, B.K. Samala, Dynamical seasonal prediction experiments of the Indian summer monsoon at IITM, Brainstorming Meeting on Modelling and Prediction over Indian Monsoon Region-Vision 2015 held at NCMRWF, New Delhi during 1-2 February, 2005

26. M.Mujumdar, R.Krishnan, A. K. Sahai, S.K.Mandke, J.R.Kulkarni, M.Shinde, Vinay Kumar, R.H.Kripalani and S.S. Sabade, Monsoon 2004 - Performance of LRF : Global Modelling Aspects, Indian Meteorological Society Meeting , Pune Chapter, on 4^th March 2005 held at Central training Institute, IMD and IITM, Pashan, Pune

25. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., R. Krishnan, Role of Indian and Pacific Ocean on ISM of 1997, in the workshop on ‘Climate Variability in 20^th Century’ held at ICTP, Trieste, Italy during 19.4.2004 to 02.5.2004

24. Grimm, A. M. and Sahai A. K., Interdecadal variations in AGCM simulation skills, Combined Preprints of the 84th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, (CD, P1.30), 11-15 January 2004, Seattle, Washington, USA, American Meteorological Society

23. Grimm, A. M., Sahai A. K. and C. F. Ropelewski, Interdecadal variability and the performance of climate models, at the First International CLIVAR Science Conference (DVD, paper DP-9), 21-25 June 2004, Baltimore, USA, CLIVAR Project Office, NOAA

22. Grimm, A. M., Sahai, A. K. and Ropelewski, C. F., Long-term variations in the performance of climate models, at the 3rd Brazilian Symposium of Atmospheric Modeling, in the 13th Brazilian Congress of Meteorology, 30 August-3 September, 2004, Fortaleza, State of Ceara, Brazil

21. Grimm, A. M., Alvaro Emílio Leite and Sahai, A. K., PREVISÃO DE PRECIPITAÇÃO SAZONAL PARA A BACIA DO RIO PARANAÍBA UTILIZANDO UM MODELO LINEAR, at the 3rd Brazilian Symposium of Atmospheric Modeling, in the 13th Brazilian Congress of Meteorology, 30 August-3 September, 2004, Fortaleza, State of Ceara, Brazil

20. Sahai, A. K., Sujata K. Mandke, R. Krishnan, M. A. Shinde and S. P. Gharge, Dynamical and Statistical Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon- 2002 and 2003, in workshop on extended range Monsoon Prediction[ERMP], 16-17 March 2004, Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, India

19. Sahai, A. K, K. Rupa Kumar, P. K. Mishra and S. K. Patwardhan, South Asian Regional Climate Scenario, in Adaptation to climate change in mountain ecosystem: Bridging research and policy, 3-5 March, 2004, Kathmandu, Nepal

18. Sahai, A. K., Experiment forecast of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: 2002 and 2003, in International workshop of Role of Indian Ocean in Climate Variability over India (INDOCLIM), 23-27 February, 2004, IITM, India

17. Grimm, A. M. and Sahai, A. K, Interdecadal variations in AGCM simulation skills, , in International workshop of Role of Indian Ocean in Climate Variability over India (INDOCLIM), 23-27 February, 2004, IITM, India

16. Sujata K. Mandke, Sahai, A. K. and R. Krishnan, Influence of SST anomalies over Indian ocean and Pacific ocean on the Indian summer monsoon of 1997, in International workshop of Role of Indian Ocean in Climate Variability over India (INDOCLIM), 23-27 February, 2004, IITM, India

15. K. Rupa Kumar, Sahai, A. K, K. Krishna Kumar, S. K. Patwardhan and P. K. Mishra, High resolution climate change scenarios for India, in International workshop of Role of Indian Ocean in Climate Variability over India (INDOCLIM), 23-27 February, 2004, IITM, India

14. S. K. Patwardhan, P. K. Mishra, K. Krishna Kumar, A. K. Sahai and K. Rupa Kumar, Cyclonic disturbances as simulated by PRECIS and comparison with observed disturbances over Indian region, in International workshop of Role of Indian Ocean in Climate Variability over India (INDOCLIM), 23-27 February, 2004, IITM, India

13. Sahai, A. K., Sujata K. Mandke, R. Krishnan, Vinay Kumar, M. Mujumdar, J. R. Kulkarni and S. P. Gharge, Statistical and Dynamical Prediction of Summer Monsoon 2003, Monsoon-2003 Workshop, 29 January 2004, Indian Meteorological Society, Pune Chapter

12. Sahai A. K., A new approach to Monsoon Prediction, IITM-IRI Workshop on seasonal climate and crop forecasting methods for south Indian rainfed agriculture, 12-16 May, 2003, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

11. Grimm, A. M. Grimm, Sahai, A. K., Ferraz, S. E. T. and Soares A. P., Rainfall forecast in a region of the Sao Francisco basin using neural network, in Fourth Inter-American Dialogue on Water Management, Foz do Iguaçu, 2001

10. Sahai, A. K., Some aspects of mathematical modeling of Himalayan and Trans- Himalayan glaciers and Indian summer monsoon, Brain storming session on Mathematical Modeling for Glacier Studies, held during 25-26 Aug. 2000, at G. B. Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad and organised by the National Academy of Sciences, India

9. Sahai, A. K., Mujumdar, M., Soman, M. K. and Satyan, V., Prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall using neural network, TROPMET-2000 symposium in Cochin, India, 2000

8. Sahai, A. K., Prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall using neural network, January, 2000, IITM seminar

7. Sahai, A. K., Soman, M. K. and Satyan, V., Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall on seasonal and monthly scales: A neural network approach, TROPMET-99, a symposium on 'Meteorology beyond 2000' held at Regional Meteorological Center, Chennai, India, 1999

6. Sahai, A. K., Use of an artificial neural network in Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall on monthly and seasonal scales and variability in predictability, February, 1999, IITM seminar

5. Sahai, A. K., Differential changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Nagpur, a seminar for the project work of Advanced Meteorological Training, IMD, India, 1997

4. Sahai, A. K., Thermosolutal convection in the presence of both vertical and horizontal temperature gradients, in 60th Conference of Indian Mathematical Society, India, held at the University of Pune, India, 1994

3. Sahai, A. K., Thermosolutal convection in a rotating heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium, in 62nd session of the National Academy of Sciences, India, 1993, held at Mohanlal Sukhadia University, Udaipur.

2. Sahai, A. K., Instability of two superposed self-gravitating viscous streams, in 59th Conference of Indian Mathematical Society, India, 1993, held at the Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar Bihar University, Muzaffarpur

1. Sahai, A. K., Thermosolutal convection in a heterogeneous fluid layer in porous medium, in the Diamond Jubilee session of the National Academy of Sciences, India, held at Allahabad, 1991

*****

TOP

Papers Published in Peer reviewed Journals

Papers Published in Proceedings/Books/Reports etc.

Papers Presented in Seminar/Symposia TOP

GUIDANCE PROVIDED FOR Ph.D./M.Tech DEGREE

Sr. No.	Name of Student	Name of University/ Institute	Title of the thesis	Year	Degree
15.	Ms. Nabanita Borah	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Extended Range Prediction Of Indian Summer Monsoon: Development Of A Non-linear Technique And Bias Correction Of Dynamical Model Forecast	2015	Ph.D
14.	Ms. Sharmila Sur	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Studies on the characteristics of Intraseasonal oscillations during extreme monsoon years: Observations and Model Simulations	2015	Ph.D
13.	Ms. Susmitha Joseph	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Some aspects of interactions between intra-seasonal and interannual variabilities of Indian summer monsoon	2011	Ph.D
12.	Ms. Sujata K. Mandke	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Numerical modeling of the south Asian monsoon and its variability	2010	Ph.D
11.	Mr. Rajib Chattopadhyay	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Role of large scale dynamics on the prediction of intra-seasonal and interannual variability of Indian summer	2010	Ph.D
10.	Ms. Suchitra Sundaram	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Numerical simulation experiments of the Indian summer monsoon and its predictability	2009	Ph.D (Co-guide)
9.	Ms. Bhagyashri Sonkusare	MIT College, Pune	Bias correction of dynamical model forecast over homogeneous regions using feed forward-back propagating artificial neural network	2016	M.E. (Digital Systems)
8.	Ms. Remya R.	Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kerala	Prediction of the Genesis and Propagation of Monsoon Depressions: Role of bias corrected SST	2014	M.Tech
7.	Ms. Saranya Ganesh S.	Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kerala	Impact of model resolution on Intensity and Track Prediction of Monsoon depressions using an Ensemble Prediction System	2014	M.Tech (Co-guide)
6.	Ms. Tanuja Nigam	Barkatullah University, Bhopal	Cloud Classification for Indian Summer Monsoon in different weather states using Self Organizing Map technique from ISCCP data	2011	M. Sc.
5.	Ms. Sharmila Sur	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Fluctuations of ITCZ and associated features over Indian region during normal, deficit and excess monsoon years	2009	M.Tech
4.	Mr. A. Muralidhar Bhat	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Potential future changes in extreme rainfall events of Indian summer monsoon in different emission scenarios: a regional GCM time-slice experiment	2007	M.Tech
3.	Mr. K. C. Pattnaik	Andhra University	Variability of easterly waves over Indian region during summer monsoon	2006	M.Tech
2.	Mr. Rajib Chattopadhyay	Savitribai Phule Pune University	Wavelet analysis of Intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon and propagation of ITCZ.	2005	M. Tech
1.	Mr. R. Narayana	Andhra University	Sea surface temperature prediction using artificial neural networks and EOF technique	1999	M. Tech

आईआईटीएम
IITM

भारतीय उष्णदेशीय मौसम विज्ञान संस्थान
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai

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: Retired Scientist

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Research Highlight

Scientist Profile

Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai

Designation : Retired Scientist

Phone :

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Email ID : sahai[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

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Research Highlight

Designation

: Retired Scientist

Phone

:

Fax

:

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: sahai[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in