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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2017

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171227.ppt December 28 2017 16:23:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171220.ppt December 21 2017 16:45:39. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171213.ppt December 14 2017 12:40:46. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171206.ppt December 07 2017 17:44:37. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171129.ppt November 30 2017 16:11:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171122.ppt November 24 2017 17:03:37. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171115.ppt November 16 2017 17:13:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171108.ppt November 13 2017 18:24:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20171101.ppt November 03 2017 13:19:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170927.ppt September 28 2017 17:42:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170920.ppt September 21 2017 12:50:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170913.ppt September 14 2017 13:08:56. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170906.ppt September 07 2017 11:54:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170830.ppt August 31 2017 16:09:31. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170823.ppt August 24 2017 12:20:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170816.ppt August 17 2017 12:07:18. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170809.ppt August 11 2017 10:19:13. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170802.ppt August 03 2017 12:37:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170726.ppt July 27 2017 12:02:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170719.ppt July 20 2017 13:04:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170712.ppt July 13 2017 11:42:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170705.ppt July 06 2017 12:24:57. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170628.ppt June 29 2017 16:43:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170621.ppt June 22 2017 13:08:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170614.ppt June 15 2017 14:44:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170607.ppt June 08 2017 17:40:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170531.ppt June 01 2017 17:43:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170524.ppt May 25 2017 13:15:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170517.ppt May 19 2017 14:52:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170510.ppt May 15 2017 19:05:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20170503.ppt May 08 2017 17:49:38. hrs

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2018

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20181003.ppt October 04 2018 12:46:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180926.ppt September 27 2018 19:34:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180919.ppt September 20 2018 20:45:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180912.ppt September 13 2018 19:25:53. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180905.ppt September 06 2018 12:13:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180829.ppt August 30 2018 11:45:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180822.ppt August 23 2018 12:17:59. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180815.ppt August 16 2018 13:31:37. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180808.ppt August 09 2018 11:51:34. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180801.ppt August 02 2018 12:41:24. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180725.ppt July 26 2018 12:33:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180718.ppt July 19 2018 16:44:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180711.ppt July 12 2018 12:53:38. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180704.ppt July 05 2018 15:15:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180627.ppt June 28 2018 14:43:43. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180620.ppt June 21 2018 12:20:22. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180613.ppt June 14 2018 16:44:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180606.ppt June 07 2018 15:04:43. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180530.ppt May 31 2018 14:38:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180523.ppt May 25 2018 19:25:37. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180516.ppt May 17 2018 15:00:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180509.ppt May 10 2018 12:00:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180502.ppt May 03 2018 15:47:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180425.ppt April 26 2018 16:55:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180418.ppt April 19 2018 15:39:50. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180411.ppt April 12 2018 19:32:43. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180404.ppt April 05 2018 12:45:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180328.ppt March 29 2018 18:22:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180321.ppt March 22 2018 15:41:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180314.ppt March 15 2018 11:58:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180307.ppt March 08 2018 15:47:48. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180228.ppt March 01 2018 17:23:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180221.ppt February 22 2018 18:56:13. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180214.ppt February 15 2018 18:27:24. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180207.ppt February 08 2018 14:47:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180131.ppt February 01 2018 18:50:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180124.ppt January 25 2018 14:39:39. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180117.ppt January 18 2018 15:17:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180110.ppt January 11 2018 17:44:34. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20180103.ppt January 04 2018 16:50:55. hrs

 
 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has been providing experimental real-time forecast of the active-break spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall since 2011 up to 4 pentad lead using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS) based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). The EPS will generate a large number of forecasts from different initial conditions so that the expected forecast and also the expected spreads or uncertainties in terms of probability from this forecast can be informed. Comparison is shown between CFSv2 skill and the atmosphere only GFSv2 model forced with bias corrected SST forecasted from CFSv2. Forecast is generated after every 5 day since 16 May. The pentad prediction skill may be considered as the intraseasonal variability prediction skill and is a more rigorous way of evaluating the model's hindcast skill. In addition to this, some aspects of large-scale Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations are also presented here. Predictions and verification have been done over 4 different homogeneous regions of India where ISMR is more or less homogeneous. The selected regions are Central India (CEI), North-East India (NEI), North-West India (NWI), South peninsula (SPI) and a broader region, monsoon core zone of India (MZI).