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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2019

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191225.ppt December 26 2019 08:43:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191218.ppt December 19 2019 06:17:59. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191211.ppt December 12 2019 07:56:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191204.ppt December 06 2019 06:46:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191127.ppt November 28 2019 07:43:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191120.ppt November 21 2019 05:58:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191113.ppt November 14 2019 06:11:50. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191106.ppt November 07 2019 11:38:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191030.ppt October 31 2019 07:42:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191016.ppt October 17 2019 06:57:21. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20191002.ppt October 03 2019 08:01:59. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190925.ppt September 26 2019 06:01:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190918.ppt September 19 2019 06:17:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190911.ppt September 12 2019 05:40:43. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190904.ppt September 05 2019 07:51:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190828.ppt August 29 2019 05:38:16. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190821.ppt August 22 2019 07:48:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190814.ppt August 15 2019 07:20:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190807.ppt August 08 2019 06:51:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190731.ppt August 01 2019 05:44:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190724.ppt July 25 2019 09:35:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190717.ppt July 18 2019 05:19:50. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190710.ppt July 11 2019 07:09:34. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190703.ppt July 04 2019 07:16:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190626.ppt June 27 2019 06:16:46. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190619.ppt June 20 2019 10:21:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190612.ppt June 13 2019 06:03:30. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190605.ppt June 06 2019 05:45:57. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190529.ppt May 30 2019 06:25:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190522.ppt May 23 2019 08:24:24. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190515.ppt May 16 2019 12:37:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190508.ppt May 09 2019 06:22:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190501.ppt May 02 2019 10:38:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190424.ppt April 25 2019 07:56:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190417.ppt April 18 2019 06:13:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190410.ppt April 11 2019 13:39:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190403.ppt April 04 2019 06:53:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190327.ppt March 28 2019 08:07:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190320.ppt March 22 2019 05:34:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190313.ppt March 14 2019 11:51:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190306.ppt March 07 2019 10:09:18. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190227.ppt February 28 2019 12:59:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190213.ppt February 21 2019 09:41:16. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190206.ppt February 21 2019 09:30:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190220.ppt February 21 2019 09:24:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190130.ppt February 01 2019 05:34:39. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190123.ppt January 24 2019 11:48:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190116.ppt January 17 2019 06:04:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190109.ppt January 10 2019 11:04:21. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20190102.ppt January 03 2019 11:06:51. hrs

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2020

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200722.ppt July 25 2020 14:09:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200715.ppt July 16 2020 07:37:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200708.ppt July 09 2020 07:02:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200701.ppt July 02 2020 10:31:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200617.ppt June 25 2020 07:32:45. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200610.ppt June 25 2020 07:30:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200624.ppt June 25 2020 07:20:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200603.ppt June 04 2020 07:03:30. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200527.ppt May 28 2020 10:26:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200520.ppt May 21 2020 07:50:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200513.ppt May 14 2020 07:52:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200506.ppt May 07 2020 07:54:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200429.ppt April 30 2020 06:29:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200422.ppt April 23 2020 06:11:31. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200415.ppt April 16 2020 10:48:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200408.ppt April 09 2020 06:44:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200401.ppt April 02 2020 18:16:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200325.ppt March 26 2020 07:40:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200318.ppt March 19 2020 06:23:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200311.ppt March 12 2020 11:22:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200304.ppt March 05 2020 13:05:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200226.ppt February 27 2020 06:39:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200219.ppt February 20 2020 05:15:15. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200212.ppt February 13 2020 05:12:15. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200205.ppt February 06 2020 10:32:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200129.ppt January 30 2020 11:54:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200122.ppt January 23 2020 05:48:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200115.ppt January 16 2020 10:09:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200108.ppt January 10 2020 06:30:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200101.ppt January 03 2020 06:20:43. hrs

 
 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has been providing experimental real-time forecast of the active-break spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall since 2011 up to 4 pentad lead using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS) based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). The EPS will generate a large number of forecasts from different initial conditions so that the expected forecast and also the expected spreads or uncertainties in terms of probability from this forecast can be informed. Comparison is shown between CFSv2 skill and the atmosphere only GFSv2 model forced with bias corrected SST forecasted from CFSv2. Forecast is generated after every 5 day since 16 May. The pentad prediction skill may be considered as the intraseasonal variability prediction skill and is a more rigorous way of evaluating the model's hindcast skill. In addition to this, some aspects of large-scale Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations are also presented here. Predictions and verification have been done over 4 different homogeneous regions of India where ISMR is more or less homogeneous. The selected regions are Central India (CEI), North-East India (NEI), North-West India (NWI), South peninsula (SPI) and a broader region, monsoon core zone of India (MZI).