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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2020

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201230.ppt December 31 2020 06:42:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201223.ppt December 24 2020 07:02:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201216.ppt December 17 2020 06:53:31. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201209.ppt December 10 2020 05:25:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201202.ppt December 03 2020 06:35:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201125.ppt November 26 2020 06:32:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201118.ppt November 19 2020 10:12:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201111.ppt November 12 2020 05:42:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201104.ppt November 05 2020 05:14:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201028.ppt October 29 2020 06:50:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201021.ppt October 22 2020 05:29:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201014.ppt October 15 2020 06:14:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20201007.ppt October 08 2020 10:23:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200930.ppt October 01 2020 06:40:15. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200923.ppt September 24 2020 07:15:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200916.ppt September 17 2020 07:52:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200909.ppt September 10 2020 06:41:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200902.ppt September 03 2020 05:50:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200826.ppt August 27 2020 06:17:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200819.ppt August 20 2020 05:58:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200812.ppt August 13 2020 07:12:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200805.ppt August 06 2020 06:08:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200729.ppt July 30 2020 06:29:56. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200722.ppt July 25 2020 14:09:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200715.ppt July 16 2020 07:37:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200708.ppt July 09 2020 07:02:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200701.ppt July 02 2020 10:31:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200617.ppt June 25 2020 07:32:45. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200610.ppt June 25 2020 07:30:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200624.ppt June 25 2020 07:20:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200603.ppt June 04 2020 07:03:30. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200527.ppt May 28 2020 10:26:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200520.ppt May 21 2020 07:50:44. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200513.ppt May 14 2020 07:52:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200506.ppt May 07 2020 07:54:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200429.ppt April 30 2020 06:29:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200422.ppt April 23 2020 06:11:31. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200415.ppt April 16 2020 10:48:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200408.ppt April 09 2020 06:44:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200401.ppt April 02 2020 18:16:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200325.ppt March 26 2020 07:40:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200318.ppt March 19 2020 06:23:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200311.ppt March 12 2020 11:22:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200304.ppt March 05 2020 13:05:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200226.ppt February 27 2020 06:39:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200219.ppt February 20 2020 05:15:15. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200212.ppt February 13 2020 05:12:15. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200205.ppt February 06 2020 10:32:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200129.ppt January 30 2020 11:54:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200122.ppt January 23 2020 05:48:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200115.ppt January 16 2020 10:09:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200108.ppt January 10 2020 06:30:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20200101.ppt January 03 2020 06:20:43. hrs

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2021

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210428.ppt April 29 2021 06:21:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210421.ppt April 22 2021 06:47:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210414.ppt April 15 2021 07:07:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210407.ppt April 08 2021 14:00:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210331.ppt April 01 2021 10:45:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210324.ppt March 25 2021 06:52:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210317.ppt March 18 2021 06:22:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210310.ppt March 11 2021 05:15:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210303.ppt March 04 2021 05:55:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210224.ppt February 25 2021 05:20:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210217.ppt February 18 2021 05:34:56. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210210.ppt February 11 2021 06:56:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210203.ppt February 04 2021 07:02:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210127.ppt January 28 2021 05:57:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210120.ppt January 21 2021 05:48:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210113.ppt January 14 2021 06:19:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210106.ppt January 07 2021 07:44:26. hrs

 
 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal and Extended Range Prediction group of IITM has been providing experimental real-time forecast of the active-break spells of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall since 2011 up to 4 pentad lead using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS) based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2). The EPS will generate a large number of forecasts from different initial conditions so that the expected forecast and also the expected spreads or uncertainties in terms of probability from this forecast can be informed. Comparison is shown between CFSv2 skill and the atmosphere only GFSv2 model forced with bias corrected SST forecasted from CFSv2. Forecast is generated after every 5 day since 16 May. The pentad prediction skill may be considered as the intraseasonal variability prediction skill and is a more rigorous way of evaluating the model's hindcast skill. In addition to this, some aspects of large-scale Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations are also presented here. Predictions and verification have been done over 4 different homogeneous regions of India where ISMR is more or less homogeneous. The selected regions are Central India (CEI), North-East India (NEI), North-West India (NWI), South peninsula (SPI) and a broader region, monsoon core zone of India (MZI).