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Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2021

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211229.ppt December 30 2021 05:29:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211222.ppt December 23 2021 05:57:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211215.ppt December 16 2021 11:14:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211208.ppt December 09 2021 06:46:22. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211201.ppt December 02 2021 10:07:00. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211124.ppt November 25 2021 17:40:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211117.ppt November 18 2021 18:09:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211110.ppt November 11 2021 09:36:50. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211103.ppt November 05 2021 07:29:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211027.ppt October 28 2021 06:43:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211020.ppt October 21 2021 07:09:16. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211013.ppt October 14 2021 07:46:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20211006.ppt October 07 2021 09:00:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210929.ppt September 30 2021 09:49:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210922.ppt September 23 2021 06:09:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210915.ppt September 16 2021 06:05:49. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210908.ppt September 09 2021 06:10:04. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210901.ppt September 02 2021 10:42:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210825.ppt August 26 2021 05:51:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210818.ppt August 19 2021 06:52:59. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210811.ppt August 12 2021 13:41:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210804.ppt August 05 2021 12:28:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210728.ppt July 29 2021 06:53:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210721.ppt July 22 2021 06:11:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210714.ppt July 15 2021 06:12:30. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210707.ppt July 08 2021 05:45:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210630.ppt July 01 2021 06:32:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210623.ppt June 24 2021 06:18:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210616.ppt June 17 2021 06:41:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210609.ppt June 10 2021 07:34:06. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210602.ppt June 03 2021 05:53:52. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210526.ppt May 27 2021 05:43:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210519.ppt May 20 2021 05:51:12. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210512.ppt May 13 2021 09:38:29. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210505.ppt May 06 2021 05:00:18. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210428.ppt April 29 2021 06:21:35. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210421.ppt April 22 2021 06:47:55. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210414.ppt April 15 2021 07:07:08. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210407.ppt April 08 2021 14:00:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210331.ppt April 01 2021 10:45:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210324.ppt March 25 2021 06:52:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210317.ppt March 18 2021 06:22:32. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210310.ppt March 11 2021 05:15:58. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210303.ppt March 04 2021 05:55:36. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210224.ppt February 25 2021 05:20:54. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210217.ppt February 18 2021 05:34:56. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210210.ppt February 11 2021 06:56:25. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210203.ppt February 04 2021 07:02:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210127.ppt January 28 2021 05:57:17. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210120.ppt January 21 2021 05:48:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210113.ppt January 14 2021 06:19:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20210106.ppt January 07 2021 07:44:26. hrs

Archieval of Real Time Forecast

2022

File NameDate & Time
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220921.ppt September 22 2022 10:03:05. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220914.ppt September 15 2022 07:39:22. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220907.ppt September 08 2022 07:34:03. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220831.ppt September 01 2022 09:51:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220824.ppt August 25 2022 07:59:40. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220817.ppt August 18 2022 07:45:26. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220803.ppt August 04 2022 11:07:14. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220720.ppt July 21 2022 12:41:43. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220713.ppt July 14 2022 12:20:38. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220706.ppt July 14 2022 05:07:27. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220608.ppt June 09 2022 06:06:24. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220601.ppt June 02 2022 08:54:51. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220525.ppt May 26 2022 06:36:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220518.ppt May 19 2022 07:08:37. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220511.ppt May 12 2022 06:08:07. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220504.ppt May 05 2022 13:06:48. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220427.ppt April 28 2022 05:58:21. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220420.ppt April 21 2022 09:53:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220413.ppt April 14 2022 10:52:01. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220406.ppt April 07 2022 07:56:23. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220330.ppt March 31 2022 07:08:20. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220323.ppt March 24 2022 14:57:47. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220316.ppt March 17 2022 06:08:33. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220309.ppt March 10 2022 07:24:02. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220302.ppt March 03 2022 07:38:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220223.ppt February 24 2022 07:11:29. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220216.ppt February 17 2022 05:44:42. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220209.ppt February 10 2022 16:40:28. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220202.ppt February 03 2022 07:44:41. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220126.ppt January 27 2022 07:35:11. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220119.ppt January 20 2022 06:52:19. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220112.ppt January 13 2022 06:40:09. hrs
ERPAS_Real-Time_Forecast_20220105.ppt January 07 2022 12:57:06. hrs

 
 

Disclaimer: The forecasts provided on this website since 07 July 2022 are from the second generation extended range prediction system (ERPv2) developed at IITM with a multi-physics strategy (Sahai et al. 2021; Kaur et al. 2022), and are being run on an experimental basis for the monsoon season 2022. For forecasts based on ERPv1, developed by IITM and being run operationally by IMD, please visit, https://nwp.imd.gov.in/cfs_rf.php or https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php

 
 

 

INTRODUCTION

Under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) Project (Rao et al., 2019) of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) started ERP efforts in 2011 by adopting the Climate Forecast System (CFS) from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. An ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed for the ERP by using an indigenous perturbation technique (Abhilash et al. 2013), which was later developed into a multi-model EPS. Several post-processing techniques have also been developed to improve the prediction skill of extreme weather events (Sahai et al., 2017; Ganesh et al., 2018, 2020).

The EPS has remarkable skill in delivering an outlook on the intraseasonal fluctuations within the Indian summer monsoon, Madden-Julian Oscillation, heat/cold waves, cyclogenesis, and heavy rainfall events (Abhilash et al., 2013, 2014a,b,c, 2015a,b; Sahai et al., 2013, 2015a,b, 2017; Joseph et al., 2015a,b, 2016, 2019; Mandal et al. 2019; Dey et al., 2019; Ganesh et al., 2020), and this was adapted by India Meteorological Department (IMD) for operational purposes in 2016. Henceforth, these forecasts are used for generating the agricultural bulletins every week, which proved to be beneficial for farmers in increasing crop yield and choosing cost-effective crops (Chattopadyay et al. 2018). Health bulletins are also being generated by IMD using ERP guidance. An early warning system for the probabilistic prediction of vector-borne diseases has also been developed based on the ERP using AI/ML methods (Sahai et al. 2020).

In addition to these, efforts are now underway in generating the second-generation ERP (ERPv2) with a multi-physics framework for the improved prediction of the weather systems beyond 2 weeks (Sahai et al. 2021; Kaur et al. 2021). A competent set of physics pairs based on convection (simplified Arakawa Schubert SAS (Arakawa and Schubert 1974), revised SAS with modified shallow-convection (Han and Pan 2011), and microphysics (Zhao & Carr (Zhao and Carr 1997) and Ferrier (Ferrier et al. (2002)) schemes is selected to formulate a physics-based ensemble. The system with only control runs are showing great potential in the first three week leads. Therefore, for the ERPv2, we have three initial condition perturbed ensemble members (control + two) each for six multi-physics combinations, thus totalling 18 ensembles (3 initial condition perturbation X 6 physics perturbation). The experimental forecasts based on this new system, i.e., ERPv2, are now available and updated every Thursday on a real-time basis on this website, https://www.tropmet.res.in/erpas/.