Real Time Forecast

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Verification_MISO.ppt September 29 2014 14:57:23. hrs
Verification_spatial.ppt September 29 2014 14:49:49. hrs
Verification_anim_Aug.ppt September 29 2014 14:41:39. hrs
Verification_anim_Jul.ppt September 09 2014 16:10:58. hrs
Verification_anim_May.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:08. hrs
Verification_anim_Jun.ppt August 13 2014 14:56:05. hrs

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Archieval of Forecast Verification

File NameDate & Time
Verification_20140725.ppt July 26 2014 12:24:09. hrs
Verification_20140720.ppt July 21 2014 13:07:17. hrs
Verification_20140715.ppt July 16 2014 16:28:52. hrs
Verification_20140710.ppt July 11 2014 16:58:24. hrs
Verification_20140705.ppt July 06 2014 14:07:28. hrs
Verification_20140630.ppt July 01 2014 16:52:20. hrs
Verification_20140625.ppt June 26 2014 15:57:58. hrs
Verification_20140620.ppt June 21 2014 13:42:02. hrs
Verification_20140615.ppt June 16 2014 20:07:46. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_June_July.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs
FV_2013_Spatial_August_September.ppt September 10 2013 16:30:28. hrs

 

Perturbation Method

Dynamical extended range prediction is subjected to various sources of errors, of which the errors arising from the uncertainties in the initial conditions and model are important. To eradicate such errors, ensemble prediction approach is one of the best options and has been attempted by various operational centers [Buizza and Palmer 1995, Toth and Kalnay 1993, Houtekamer et al. 1996, 2005]. Though there are several approaches to generate ensembles of different initial conditions, we use an approach [Abhilash et. al. 2013a] which is similar to the 'complex-and-same-model environment group' as classified in Buizza et al. [2008].

For the details on perturbation technique used in this study refer Abhilash et al., 2013a, b. Since the skill and spread of an EPS essentially depends on the ensemble size [Richardson 2001, Reynolds et al. 2011], an ensemble of 10 perturbed atmospheric initial conditions has been developed in addition to one actual initial condition keeping in mind the huge computational power required to run large ensemble members in real-time basis. It has already been observed that there is not much difference between the perturbed and the actual analysis field over most of the parts except in the extra tropics where wind field is higher [Figure 1, Abhilash et al. 2012].