The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at resolution T574 with 21 members and the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) T1534 is being run by IMD successfully. GEFS T574 forecast and the high resolution GFS T1534 forecast outputs were analysed by IITM scientist.
GFS T1534 was able to capture the genesis of SCS Mora 5 days in advance. Also GEFS T574 was capable in predicting the northward movement of the system with not much difference among the ensemble members. Both the models predicted the onset of monsoon on May 30.The subsequent lack of rainfall was also predicted well in both the models..