Climate Variability and Prediction



The objective of understanding mechanisms responsible for Indian monsoon variability on intraseasonal, interannual and inter-decadal time scale is proposed to be achieved through diagnostic studies as well as modelling and simulation studies. In particular

  • To develop a decadal climate prediction system (DCPS).

  • To explore decadal variability of climate extremes and prediction.

  • To examine the predictability/simulation skill for summer monsoon rainfall, sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea level etc. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models.

  • To continue ongoing efforts in identifying regional and global climate drivers for monsoon interannual variability and to identify useful predictors.

  • To examine  the  teleconnections of Indian monsoon rainfall on intra-seasonal , interannual to decadal scale.

  • To develop forecast models for relevant climatic parameters over India on different spatio-temporal scales using empirical/statistical methods as well as downscaling of seasonal forecasts from General Circulation Models (GCMs) with high-resolution regional models.

  • To understand the role of low-frequency feedbacks involving land-atmosphere interactions relevant to interannual variability of the seasonal mean Indian summer monsoon that is governed by internal dynamics leading to the improvement of the representation of Indian monsoon rainfall, soil moisture etc. in the current generation of earth system models.

  • To develop regional climate data products such as daily temperature, rainfall etc on district, state and homogeneous regional scales using latest interpolation techniques for improved climate change detection and attribution.

  • To understand the role of aerosol loading over the Indian region in monsoon interannual variability and its possible implications on the predictability on interannual as well as on intraseasonal time scale.

  • To quantify the various aspects of climate change and variability on intraseasonal, interannual, decadal and century time scales over India and the neighbouring countries, particularly related to the southwest and northeast monsoons.