Observed correlation pattern between ISMR and JJAS mean SST for (a) Pre-77 (1960-1977), (b) Post-77 (1978-2005)
Shift in MONSOON–SST teleconnections in the tropical Indian Ocean and ENSEMBLES climate models' fidelity in its simulation
Prior to the climate shift (Pre-77), the observed correlation between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and SST was positive in the eastern equatorial IndianOcean (EIO) and negative correlation prevailed in the western equatorialIndian Ocean (WIO), whereas after the climate shift(Post-77), the correlation pattern has reversed (i.e. positive correlation in WIO and negative correlation in EIO). The present study addresses why the teleconnection betweenISMR and SST has changed over TIO and how well the state-of-the-art coupled models simulate the shift.