Application of Nonlinear Scale Interactions in Monsoon variability and predictability
The rapid growth of error energy in boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISOs) within the 3-5days of forecasts can be explained in terms of scale interactions through which the error energy is advected nonlinearly initially from short and synoptic scales (wave no. >10) to long waves (wave no. 5-10) and from long waves to planetary scales (wave no. 1 – 4 ) in subsequent forecasts that are responsible for rapid build-up of error in BSISOs. This theory will help for better designing modeling experiment by reducing small scale error and thereby, improved simulation of seasonal and extended range prediction of Indian monsoon.